长江科学院院报 ›› 2016, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10): 149-154.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20151009

• 水利工程建设与管理 • 上一篇    

水电工程施工疲劳风险分析与量化评价研究

江新1a,1b,徐平1a,1b,晋良海1a,1b,黄华2   

  1. 1.三峡大学 a.湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室;
    b.水利与环境学院,湖北 宜昌 443002;
    2.中国电建集团 中南勘测设计研究院有限公司,湖北 宜昌 443002
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-27 出版日期:2016-10-20 发布日期:2016-10-17
  • 通讯作者: 晋良海(1973-),男,四川简阳人,副教授,博士,主要从事水利水电建设项目运筹、施工安全工效研究,(电话)18986778116(电子信箱)754780248@qq.com。
  • 作者简介:江 新(1966-) ,男,安徽寿县人,教授,硕士生导师,主要从事工程项目群管理、系统决策理论及评价等方面的研究,(电话)13339795561(电子信箱) jiangx163@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目(CKWV2016382/KY);国家自然科学基金项目(51379110);水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学)开放基金资助项目(2016KSD20)

Analysis and Quantitative Evaluation of Fatigue Risk in Hydropower Project Construction

JIANG Xin1,2, XU Ping1,2,JIN Liang-hai1,2, HUANG Hua3   

  1. 1.Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three GorgesUniversity, Yichang 443002, China;
    2.College of Hydraulic &
    Environmental Engineering, China ThreeGorges University, Yichang 443002,China;
    3. Power China Zhongnan Engineering Corporation Limited,Yichang 443002,China
  • Received:2015-11-27 Published:2016-10-20 Online:2016-10-17

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摘要： 为量化评估作业疲劳风险,提高施工作业安全水平,提出基于云模型改进的水电工程施工疲劳风险模糊综合评价方法。在评价过程中,利用云模型的3个数字特征Ex(期望)、En(熵),He(超熵)表征常规模糊综合评判法中的综合评判矩阵和权重矩阵;运用正态云模型代替模糊隶属度函数,计算疲劳风险发生的可能性等级;综合运用正向云及逆向云,可视化评价研究结果。用所建立的方法对某水电工程高边坡作业疲劳风险进行评估,结果表明,该水电工程的疲劳风险发生的可能性为5.419,处于“一般”等级,但明显偏向于风险“较大”等级。该评价方法综合考虑风险评估的随机性、模糊性及评价主体的主观性,为客观测量和及时预防水电施工作业疲劳风险提供一种行之有效的新方法。

关键词: 水电工程施工, 高危作业, 云模型, 疲劳风险, 量化评价

Abstract: In the aim of quantifying the evaluation of construction fatigue risk and improving construction safety, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method improved by cloud model was proposed to assess the construction fatigue risk of high-risk operationsin hydropower project.Three digital features Ex, En, and He were taken to substitute the comprehensive evaluation matrix and the weight matrix in traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Fuzzy membership function was substituted by normal cloud model to calculate the ratings of risk possibility. The evaluation result was visualized by using forward and reverses clouds together.The method was applied to the evaluation of fatigue risk of high slope operations in a hydropower project.Results showed that the fatigue risk level of high slope operations is 5.419, which belongs to moderate risk but obviously closer to big risk. The randomness, fuzziness and subjectivity of the evaluation body are comprehensively considered by using this method.

Key words: hydropower project construction, high-risk operations, cloud model, fatigue risk, quantitative evaluation

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