关键词: 气候变化, 滑动平均, 小波分析, 突变检验, 玛纳斯河流域

Abstract: According to observed data of temperature, precipitation series (1959-2008) and evaporation series (1984-2000) at Kensiwate hydrological gauging station in the upstream of Manas River Basin. We analysed the climate change in this region by using linear regression, Pearson correlation coefficient, moving average for five years, Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test and Morlet wavelet analysis method. Results showed that 1) the climate of upstream Manas River Basin was mostly warm and wet in the past 5 decades. The annual average temperature increased remarkably with obvious seasonal difference within the year (temperature increased in summer and autumn). Precipitation was increasing as a whole but was not significant, and distributed unevenly within the year (precipitation concentrated in spring and summer); 2) The annual evaporation fluctuated around 1651.2 mm in the recent two decades, displaying a trend of slight increase; 3) Temperature and precipitation increased abruptly from low level to high level during the 1990s, and there was an obvious inter-annual cycle change.

Key words: climate change, moving average, wavelet analysis, mutation test, Manas River Basin