关键词: 降水变化特征, 集中度, 集中期, Mann-Kendall, 相关函数法, 深圳市

Abstract: On the basis of daily precipitation data from 1998 to 2018, we examined the stability and annual distribution characteristics of precipitation in monthly scale and annual scale in Shenzhen City by analyzing the relative variability, precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and precipitation concentration period (PCP) of the rainfall data. In subsequence, we analyzed the trends and abrupt changes and estimated the future changes of precipitation characteristics by using Mann-Kendall nonparametric method and correlation function method. Results revealed that the precipitation stability in Shenzhen in flood season was more stable than that in non-flood season, and the interannual precipitation distribution was less stable; rainfall concentrated from June to August, with a PCD of 0.23-0.72; precipitation amount and distribution parameter both witnessed abrupt changes during 2011-2013, while after the abrupt changes, the relative variability and PCD underwent downward trend whereas annual precipitation amount and PDP upward trends. In future, the precipitation series in Shenzhen is affected by past trends, of which the annual precipitation amount would go downward, PCD would intensify, precipitation would be less stable, annual precipitation would be less uniform, and PCP would delay continuously. The research findings offer scientific basis for rational water storage and water use in Shenzhen, and are of practical guiding significance for the dispatching, utilization of water resources and flood control in Shenzhen.

Key words: characteristics of precipitation variation, concentration degree, concentration period, Mann-Kendall, correlation function method, Shenzhen City