长江科学院院报 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (9): 34-39.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20180212

• 水资源与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于灰色预测模型的区域水资源承载力预测分析

刘志明1,周真中2,王永强1,洪晓峰1   

  1. 1.长江科学院 流域水资源与生态环境科学湖北省重点实验室,武汉 430010;
    2.宜昌市水资源管理中心,湖北 宜昌 443000
  • 收稿日期:2018-03-07 修回日期:2018-05-02 出版日期:2019-09-01 发布日期:2019-09-12
  • 通讯作者: 王永强(1982-),男,河南新郑人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事水资源优化配置与水利信息化研究。E-mail:wangyq@mail.crsri.cn
  • 作者简介:刘志明(1994-),男,湖北武汉人,硕士研究生,研究方向为水文水资源。E-mail: liuzhiming@hhu.edu.cn通信作者:王永强(1982-),男,河南新郑人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事水资源优化配置与水利信息化研究。E-mail:wangyq@mail.crsri.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0403600,2017YFC0403606);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51779013);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2017008/SZ)

Predicting and Analyzing Regional Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yichang Using a Grey Model

LIU Zhi-ming1, ZHOU Zhen-zhong2, WANG Yong-qiang1, HONG Xiao-feng1   

  1. 1.Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Basin Water Resources and Ecological Environmental Science, Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010,China;
    2.Yichang Water Resources Management Center,Yichang 443000,China
  • Received:2018-03-07 Revised:2018-05-02 Published:2019-09-01 Online:2019-09-12

摘要: 水资源承载力研究集综合评价和预测分析为一体。以宜昌市为例,在2005—2015年宜昌市“水资源-社会经济-生态环境”复合系统承载力综合评价基础上,采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测2020年、2025年、2030年水资源承载力;在分析未来水平年预测结果不确定性的基础上,结合最严格水资源管理制度和河长制,探讨4种情景假设下宜昌市社会经济发展模式的可持续性。研究结果表明,未来水平年宜昌市水资源承载力状态良好(2025年左右达到Ⅰ级),建议宜昌市社会经济与生态环境协调可持续发展。

关键词: 水资源承载力, 预测分析, 综合评价, GM(1, 1)灰色预测模型, 不确定性分析, 可持续发展, 宜昌市

Abstract: Research on the carrying capacity of water resources involves comprehensive evaluation and prediction and analysis. With Yichang City as a case study, we assessed the comprehensive carrying capacity of a composite system including water resources subsystem, social economy subsystem, and ecology subsystem. Firstly we predicted the carrying capacity of water resources in target years 2020, 2025, and 2030 using GM(1,1) model. Furthermore, we examined the sustainability of social economic development pattern under four scenarios based on analysis of the uncertainty of the prediction results in line with the Most Strict Water Resources Management Policy and the River Chief System. Research findings unveiled that the carrying capacity of water resources in Yichang is good in future, reaching degree Ⅰ around 2025. Under scenario three, in which sewage declines, river water quality improves, eco-environmental water use and forest cover remain increasing, the social economic development is well sustainable. Thus, we propose that social economy development should be coordinate with ecological environment protection.

Key words: carrying capacity of water resources, prediction and analysis, comprehensive evaluation, GM(1,1) model, uncertainty analysis, sustainable development, Yichang City

中图分类号: