关键词: 降水趋势, 降水突变检验, 降水周期性, 线性趋势法, 距平累积法, 变尺度趋势分析法, Mann-Kendall法,
, 小波分析, 黑龙江流域

Abstract: In a purpose of comprehensively researching the changes in precipitation in the Heilongjiang River Basin, we collected the precipitation data of 25 stations in the basin and examined the features of precipitation trend by linear trend method, accumulative anomaly method and variable scale trend analysis method; moreover, we also looked into the abrupt changes of precipitation by Mann-Kendall method, and the periodic characteristics by wavelet analysis. Results manifested that the linear trend change rate is only -0.74%/(10 a) during 1954-2012. We found no significant trend change in 97.7% of the effective time period. The accumulative anomaly method and Mann-Kendall method revealed that the precipitation changed in apparent stages, while wavelet analysis confirmed the significant periodicity of precipitation in dominant periods of 28, 12 and 4 years. In summary, the periodicity of precipitation changes in the Heilongjiang River Basin is significantly stronger than the trend. Study on the change of precipitation in Heilongjiang River Basin could provide realistic basis for Sino-Russian cross-border river management.

Key words: precipitation trend, detection of abrupt change, periodicity of precipitation, linear trend method, accumulative anomaly method, variable scale trend analysis method, Mann-Kendall method, wavelet analysis, Heilongjiang River Basin