以长江源区为研究对象,采用沱沱河站、直门达站实测径流系列,分析两站近60年来径流演变趋势,利用海洋尼诺指数分析ENSO事件的强度与时间特征,研究两站径流丰枯变化对ENSO事件的响应规律,从海-气耦合影响大气环流角度分析ENSO事件对径流的影响机制。研究结果表明,两站均呈现震荡上升的趋势,尤其在2000年以后径流呈现显著增加的趋势。分析ENSO事件发生期间长江源区径流丰枯变化响应规律可知,1960—2000年期间,暖事件发生年份,无论是当年还是次年,长江源区出现径流偏枯的概率较高;冷事件发生年份,两站均呈现出在当年偏枯、次年丰枯概率基本相当的态势。2000年以后,长江源区径流偏丰态势尤为显著。在1970年以前和2000年以后,长江源区径流与ENSO事件之间的时频结构具有一定程度的正相关性。ENSO事件发生后,引起纬向和经向大气环流异常,使得海洋向高原热量和水汽输送产生变化,从而影响青藏高原降水和径流。
Abstract
Based on runoff data collected from the Tuotuohe and Zhimenda hydrological stations, we examined the historical runoff patterns over the past six decades, and analyzed the intensity and temporal characteristics of ENSO (El-Niño Southern Oscillation) events using the Oceanic Niño Index. We also investigated the response of runoff to ENSO events and explored the potential influence of ENSO events on runoff through the lens of sea-air coupling and its impact on atmospheric circulation. The findings revealed an oscillating increasing trend in runoff at both stations, particularly noticeable since 2000, indicating a significant upward trend in runoff. Analysis of the response of runoff in the source region of Yangtze River during ENSO events demonstrated a higher probability of runoff drying up during warm events between 1960 and 2000, regardless of the current year or the subsequent year. Conversely, during cold events, both stations exhibited a comparable probability of drying up in the current year and abundant or dry conditions in the following year. Notably, after 2000, runoff in the source region experienced a substantial increase. Prior to 1970 and after 2000, runoff in the region was positively correlated with ENSO events in terms of time-frequency structure. Following an ENSO event, abnormalities in the zonal and meridional atmospheric circulation occurred, subsequently affecting ocean heat and water vapor transport to the plateau. These changes ultimately impacted the precipitation and runoff patterns in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
关键词
径流 /
ENSO事件 /
气候指数 /
交叉小波分析 /
长江源区
Key words
runoff /
ENSO event /
climate index /
cross wavelet transform /
source region of Yangtze River
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基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0203)
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