关键词: 地理因子, 年降水量, 回归拟合, 克里金插值, 空间分布, 福建省

Abstract: The aim of this research is to estimate the spatial distribution of annual mean precipitation in Fujian Province, hence offering scientific basis for industrial and agricultural production, natural disaster forecasting, and eco-environmental construction. According to precipitation data at 35 meteorological stations in Fujian province and its surrounding areas, the correlation between annual precipitation and four geological factors respectively (elevation, latitude, distance to sea shore, and slope gradient) were analyzed. Furthermore, a model was established in association with the multiple regression equation and the Kriging interpolation to estimate the spatial distribution of annual mean precipitation in Fujian Province from 1951 to 2011. The model reflects the general trend of the spatial distribution of annual precipitation, and also highlights the difference of precipitation in local areas. Results revealed that the relative average error of the fitted stations is 3.4%, and the mean absolute error is 56 mm; while the mean absolute error of the precision verification result is 3.6%. The annual precipitation displayed a wave-like rising trend from the southeast coast to the northwest mountains.

Key words: geographical factors, annual precipitation, regression fitting, Kriging interpolation, spatial distribution, Fujian Province