关键词: 水资源安全, WPI模型, 因素评判模型, 因子分析法, 重庆市

Abstract: The aim of this research is to comprehensively assess the situation of water resource security in Chongqing city and analyze the influencing factors in multiple background. We built an assessment index system of water resources security based on WPI model. The system consists of five subsystems: resource (R), access (A), usage (U), capacity (C), and environment (E). We calculated the comprehensive security index of water resources and the five subsystems’ scores during 1997-2013 in Chongqing city using weighting function method, and conducted comparative analysis by using the method of factor analysis. Furthermore, we established factors rating model and classified the five subsystems into superior, medium and inferior. Results revealed that the water resources security index of Chongqing increased progressively during 1997-2013, and the coefficients of overall trend was 0.0228/a, indicating that the situation of water resources security improved and the assessment result was consistent with factor analysis. However, the five subsystems had a different variation tendency in time. Among the five subsystems, the scores of access subsystem and capacity subsystem were rising year by year. Compared with earlier years, the scores of resource subsystem and environment subsystem in late years declined. But the score of usage subsystem changed a little. The access factor and capacity factor evolved from inferior to superior while the resource factor and environment factor degraded into the inferior. The efficiency factor degraded into medium from superior. According to the above results, we conclude that the situation of water resources security in Chongqing city has risk possibility in the future. Therefore, the management of water resources should be strengthened and water environment should also be improved, and the water-saving awareness should be intensified.

Key words: water resources security, WPI model, factors rating model, factor analysis, Chongqing city