为深入了解嘉陵江流域实际蒸散发特征及其变化原因,基于1956—2000年嘉陵江流域13个气象站点逐日观测资料以及流域逐年径流数据,运用广义互补相关原理模型,分析嘉陵江流域实际蒸散发量ETa时空分布特征,通过分析Pearson相关系数研究实际蒸散发量和气象因子的相关性,探讨其变化原因。结果表明:①广义互补相关原理理论模型适用于嘉陵江流域,且ETa估算精度高,平均绝对误差为6.79 mm,平均相对误差仅为1.42%;②1961—2000年嘉陵江流域实际蒸散发量时间分布上呈现缓慢降低趋势,下降速率达-5.3 mm/(10 a),空间分布表现为北高南低、东高西低,最大值649.86 mm,出现在甘肃省迭部县;最低值188.26 mm,位于四川省松潘县;③1961—2000年嘉陵江流域日照时数和日较差的下降导致辐射能量项的降低,致使实际蒸散发量减少,日最高温、日最低温、实际水汽压的增加以及2 m风速的下降造成空气动力学项的减少,缓解了实际蒸散发量的减弱。首次将广义互补相关原理理论模型运用到嘉陵江流域ETa的计算,取得了较好的估算精度,为嘉陵江流域的水资源评价、制定正确的水资源规划及未来实现水资源持续发展提供科学依据。
Abstract
The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of actual evapotranspiration in Jialing River Basin was investigated using generalized complementary correlation model based on daily observation data of 13 meteorological stations from 1961 to 1979 and annual runoff data in the basin. The correlation between actual evapotranspiration and meteorological factors was examined according to Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Results demonstrated that: 1) the generalized complementary model is applicable to the Jialing River Basin with high accuracy, an average absolute error 6.79 mm and an average relative error merely 1.42 %. 2) In spatial scale, actual evapotranspiration was higher in the north and east of the basin, whereas lower in the south and west with the maximum reaching 649.86 mm found in Diebu County of Gansu Province, and the minimum 188.26 mm in Songpan County of Sichuan Province. A slow downward trend from 1961 to 2000 at a rate of -5.3 mm/10 a was found in the temporal distribution. 3) The correlation coefficient analysis showed that the decline of actual evapotranspiration was closely related to the decreasing supply of sunshine hours and daily range that gave rise to the reduction of radiation-energy item. On the contrary, the increase of daily minimum temperature, daily maximum temperature and actual vapor pressure and the decrease of 2 m wind speed contributing to the aerodynamics item decreasing eased the reduction rate of actual evapotranspiration. The generalized complementary correlation model was applied to the ETa of Jialing River Basin for the first time, with favorable estimation accuracy. The research findings offer scientific basis for the evaluation, planning, and sustainable development of water resources.
关键词
广义互补相关 /
实际蒸散发 /
时空变化 /
气象因子 /
相关系数 /
嘉陵江流域
Key words
generalized complementarity correlation /
actual evapotranspiration /
temporal and spatial distribution /
meteorological factor /
coefficient of correlation /
Jialing River Basin
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基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41330529);江苏省第四期“333高层次人才培养工程” 科研项目(BRA2014373);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201411)
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