为更好地进行流域防洪规划和防灾预案的制定，对溃坝型洪水灾害损失进行了预测性定量评估与淹没空间分布制图研究。以溃坝洪灾单项损失——人口损失为例，利用空间信息技术在空间数据管理、分析和可视化方面的优势，对溃坝型洪灾特征参数进行估算，绘制淹没人口空间分布图，并结合溃坝洪灾生命损失评估模型，实现溃坝型洪灾损失的预测性定量评估分析。分析结果表明:警报时间对生命损失起重要作用，随着警报时间的提前，生命损失明显减小。
Abstract
Floods caused by dam failure are more destructive than rain gush flood and ice flood. To better serve the flood control and disaster prevention planning, predictive quantitative assessment and spatial distribution mapping for dam break loss were conducted. Life loss was selected as an assessment example. With spatial information technology in data management, analysis and visualization, the characteristic parameters of dam break loss were obtained, and by using life loss model, the life loss were quantitatively estimated, and finally the spatial distribution results were displayed by maps. Results showed that alarm time is important to life loss. As the alarm takes place earlier, the life loss reduces significantly.
关键词
空间信息技术 /
溃坝 /
洪水灾害损失 /
定量估算 /
预测评估
Key words
spatial information technology /
dam break /
flood disaster loss /
quantitative estimation /
predictive assessment
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参考文献
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基金
国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAK10B04)；国家自然科学基金项目(51209019)；长江科学院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务项目(CKSF2013022/GC)
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