关键词: 水资源承载力, 系统动力学(SD)模型, 乌苏市, 情景模拟

Abstract: Located in the central part of the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, Wusu City is at the heart of the region’s core development zone. The construction of the vital economic area in Wusu City has been hindered by a scarcity of water resources. Identifying an optimal sustainable development strategy for Wusu’s water resources has emerged as an urgent challenge. Utilizing the principles of system dynamics and employing Vensim software, we established a system dynamics model for Wusu City and proposed four different development scenarios. Drawing on historical data from 2010 to 2020, the model forecasts the dynamic shifts in Wusu’s water resource carrying capacity from 2021 to 2030, aiming to uncover solutions for enhancing the city’s water resource carrying capacity. The findings reveal that, in the status quo scenario, the total water demand in Wusu City is projected to reach 983 million cubic meters by 2030, exceeding the water use target of 2030. The water deficit is estimated to be 266 million cubic meters. Under four different scenarios (status quo, coordinated development, economic development, and water conservation), the water supply-demand ratios in Wusu City are projected to be 0.71, 0.80, 0.69, and 0.89 respectively by 2025, and 0.73, 0.85, 0.68, and 0.92 respectively by 2030. The water resources carrying capacity in Wusu City has been in an imbalance, with only the coordinated development scenario showing a relatively high and trending towards a sustainable pattern. In the status quo scenario, from 2022 to 2030, Wusu City’s water resources carrying capacity remains at a critical level, and is expected to deteriorate with time, which won’t be able to support the scale of its socioeconomic development.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, system dynamics model, Wusu City, scenario simulation