长江科学院院报 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 138-142.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20211117

• 工程安全与灾害防治 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于大坝脆弱度与溃坝后果系数的群坝风险排序方法再研究

张士辰1,2, 彭雪辉1,2, 侯文昂1,2   

  1. 1.南京水利科学研究院,南京 210029;
    2.水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京 210024
  • 收稿日期:2021-10-25 修回日期:2022-04-13 出版日期:2023-03-01 发布日期:2023-03-28
  • 通讯作者: 彭雪辉(1971-),男,湖南娄底人,正高级工程师,博士,主要从事大坝风险评估和应急预案等。E-mail:xhpeng@nhir.cn
  • 作者简介:张士辰(1977-),男,河北涿州人,正高级工程师,博士,主要从事大坝风险评估。E-mail:sczhang@nhir.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41671504);中央级科研院所基金项目(Y722009,Y721004,Y721006)

A Modified Ranking Method for Dam Portfolio Risks Based on Dam Fragility and Dam-Break Consequence Coefficient

ZHANG Shi-chen1,2, PENG Xue-hui1,2, HOU Wen-ang1,2   

  1. 1. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-WaterResources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing 210024, China
  • Received:2021-10-25 Revised:2022-04-13 Online:2023-03-01 Published:2023-03-28

摘要: 我国水库数量世界第一,大坝安全涉及公共安全,安全管理成本巨大,如何在大坝安全管理中体现差别化,被各级政府所重视,随着党和国家对水库安全要求越来越高,现有大坝安全管理方式已经逐渐无法满足各级政府对水库大坝安全实施差别化管理的需求,研究提出体现大坝差别化管理的方法十分必要。在大坝脆弱度和溃坝后果系数概念基础上,对大坝风险指数计算方法进行再研究,对大坝风险指数法的内涵作了深入分析,对溃坝后果系数作了改进,重新将该方法用于20座震损水库上,获得大坝风险指数排序的有益认知。结果表明,脆弱度并非大坝风险指数的唯一因变量,需将脆弱度和溃坝后果结合起来考虑才能确定大坝风险指数的高低,风险指数大的水库大坝应优先安排加固。

关键词: 大坝安全, 脆弱度, 溃坝后果系数, 风险指数, 排序方法

Abstract: China has the largest number of dams in the world. Reservoir and dam safety involves the public safety with high cost for safety management. Governments at all levels have paid increasing attentions to differentiated dam safety management, which is worthy of research as current safety management no longer meets governments' requirements in reservoir and dam safety. Based on the concepts of dam fragility and dam-break consequence coefficient, we analyzed the method of calculating dam risk index, modified the dam-break consequence coefficient, and apllied the modified method to 20 earthquake-damaged reservoirs to obtain the ranking of dam risk index. Results show that the risk index of highly vulnerable reservoir is not necessarily high, and vise versa. Fragility is not the only dependent variable in determining the risk index. Fragility and dam-break consequence coefficient must be combined to determine the risk index. Dams with high risk index should be reinforced in priority.

Key words: dam safety, fragility, dam-break consequence coefficient, risk index, ranking method

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