关键词: 八字门滑坡, 变形预测, 影响因子, BP模型

Abstract: Landslide prediction is a worldwide problem, especially how to quantitatively consider external influencing factors in the long-term prediction. On the basis of analyzing the applicability of long-term landslide prediction, a GM(1,1) BP model based on influencing factors was presented in which external influencing factors such as rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuation were taken into consideration. Bazimen landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir was taken as a case study. The deformation characteristics, influencing factors, and failure mode of the landslide were investigated by analyzing the monitoring data of displacement, reservoir water level and rainfall. The influencing factors of Bazimen landslide were firstly determined, and in subsequence, the model established in the present study, the GM(1,1) model, and the BP model which does not include the influencing factors were respectively taken to predict the landslide deformation. Results show that the model established in this research has higher precision. 

Key words: Bazimen landslide, deformation prediction, influencing factor, BP model