关键词: 多时间尺度, SPI指数, 新疆哈巴河地区, 干旱演变分析, 水资源评估

Abstract: The drought evolution characteristics of Habahe in Xinjiang Autonomous Region from 1962 to 2014 were analyzed based on multi-timescale standardized precipitation index (SPI). Results show that 1) the SPI index method is highly applicable to Habahe region in the past 53 years, and the SPI values of different time scales can be used for drought monitoring, which is in line with actual drought conditions. 2) According to the process lines of SPI₁(time scale of one month), SPI₃ (time scale of three months) and SPI₆(time scale of six months), the probability of different levels of drought events was around 20%. The drought condition reflected by SPI₃ was more severe than those by SPI₁ and SPI₆. The value of SPI₁₂ presented a significant rising trend, indicating that the regional climate is becoming wet gradually, conducive to alleviating regional drought. 3) The inter-annual process of SPI value in different seasons varied significantly, among which the minimum SPI value was -1.97 in 1963. During the 53 years, slight drought event appeared for 9 years, medium drought event 4 years, and severe drought event 0 year; medium and severe droughts in four seasons took up 11 years in average, accounting for 26%-28%; in winter, the SPI value displayed rising trend, whereas in other seasons the changes were not obvious. The process of SPI value in summer was similar with that of annual SPI value.

Key words: Key words: multi-timescale, SPI, Habahe region, drought evolution analysis, water resources assessment