研究流域的降雨-径流关系可为水资源管理与水土保持等工作提供依据。根据实测降雨资料和历史实测径流数据构建SWAT模型并用于还原径流序列,采用Kendall秩次检验、滑动平均、M-K突变检验、小波分析、累积距平法以及径流系数,分析巴勒更河流域1970—2015年的降雨-径流关系年际变化特征、变化趋势,并运用累积斜率变化率比较方法定量地分离出气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响的贡献率。结果显示:①将SWAT模型应用在巴勒更河流域时,在校准期时评价指标R2为0.78、纳什效率系数NSE为0.76;验证期R2为0.58、NSE 为0.51,这些指标表明将SWAT模型用于巴勒更河流域的径流还原是可行的。②巴勒更河流域1970—2015年降雨有显著上升的趋势,而径流的趋势不显著;降雨突变点出现在1981年,而径流在1995年、2010年均发生突变;此外,在该流域内降雨、径流序列展现出来的周期性变化也存在差异,尤其是在主周期上,降雨主周期为28 a,径流则为23 a。③降雨-径流关系在1989年、2001年均发生变异,且每次发生变异,都导致径流系数下降,其中1970—1988年径流系数是0.15,1989—2006年径流系数为0.11,2007—2015年径流系数为0.10。④以1970—1988年为基准期,1989—2001年人类活动对径流变化占主导地位,其中径流变化人类活动贡献了65％,而气候变化对于径流变化贡献率为35％;2001—2015年人类活动对流域径流变化贡献率为81％,气候变化对径流变化的贡献率为19％;以1989—2001年为基准期,2001—2015年人类活动对径流变化的贡献率为51％,而剩余的49％是气候变化导致的。
Abstract
Studying the relationship between rainfall and runoff in river basin provides a basis for reasonable water resources management and soil and water conservation. Based on measured rainfall data and historical measured runoff data in the Balegen River basin, SWAT model was constructed and was used to restore runoff series. The interannual variation characteristics and trend of rainfall-runoff relationship from 1970 to 2015 were examined using Kendall rank test, moving average, M-K test, wavelet analysis, cumulative anomaly method, and runoff coefficient analysis. Furthermore, the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to runoff changes were quantitatively separated by comparing the cumulative slope change rate. Results manifested that 1) SWAT model is feasible to restore the runoff in Balegen River basin, with the evaluation index R2 reaching 0.78 and NSE 0.76 in calibration period, and R2 0.58 and NSE 0.51 in verification period. 2) From 1970 to 2015, rainfall in the Balegen River basin displayed a significant upward trend, while runoff trend was not significant; rainfall changed abruptly in 1981, and runoff in 1995 and 2010. The periodicity of rainfall and runoff series varied especially in the principal cycle; the principal cycle of rainfall is 28 years and runoff 23 years. 3) The rainfall-runoff relation changed abruptly in 1989 and 2001, after which the overall runoff coefficient declined, from 0.15 in 1970-1988 to 0.11 in 1989-2006, and 0.10 in 2007-2015. 4) With 1970-1988 as the base period, human activities dominated the runoff change from 1989 to 2001 with a contribution rate of 65%, and climate change contributed 35% to the runoff change; human activities also contributed 81% to runoff change from 2001 to 2015, and climate change contributed 19%. When 1989-2001 was determined as the base period, the contribution rate of human activities to runoff change from 2001 to 2015 was 51%, and the contribution rate of climate change was 49%.
关键词
降雨-径流关系 /
SWAT模型 /
趋势变化 /
累积斜率变化率比较方法 /
径流还原 /
巴勒更河
Key words
rainfall-runoff relation /
SWAT model /
change of trend /
comparison of cumulative slope change rate /
runoff restoration /
Balegen River
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基金
国家重点研发计划课题项目(2017YFC0403606);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41801260)
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