拉萨河流域处青藏高原中南部,因其独特的地理位置是对气候变化较为敏感的区域之一,同时也是青藏高原人口和耕地较为密集区域。在建立SWAT模型对拉萨河流域水循环过程进行模拟的基础上,通过设置不同气候情景与土地利用状况,分析近30 a来拉萨河流域径流变化的成因,并研究径流对气候因子变化的敏感性。结果表明:①气候变化与土地利用对径流影响占比分别约为82.95%和17.05%,主要原因在于近30 a拉萨河流域土地利用情况变化不大,而气温、降水则呈显著增加趋势;②降水每增加10%,流域径流约增加11.8%,且径流对降水变化敏感性的空间差异性较小;③气温每增加1 ℃,流域总径流约增加2.5%,但径流随气温变化的空间差异性较大,其中,中上游地区径流减小0.7%,下游地区径流约增加3.6%。
Abstract
Located in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau, the Lhasa River Basin is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change due to its unique geographical location, and is also a densely populated and cultivated area on the Tibetan Plateau. The impact of climate factors and land use on runoff is quantified and analyzed in this paper by simulating runoff in the Lhasa river basin using different climate scenarios and land use conditions based on a SWAT model. Climate change and land use exerted an influence on runoff by approximately 82.95% and 17.05%, respectively. The main reason is that land use in the Lhasa River Basin has changed little over the last three decades, while temperature and precipitation have increased significantly. For every 10% increment in precipitation, basin runoff grew by about 11.8%, and the sensitivity of runoff to precipitation is of low spatial variability. For every 1 ℃ increase in temperature, basin total runoff increased by about 2.5% with significant spatial variability in runoff changes: runoff in the middle and upper reaches fell by 0.7%, while runoff in the lower reaches rose by approximately 3.6%.
关键词
土地利用变化 /
气候变化 /
SWAT模型 /
径流量 /
拉萨河流域
Key words
land use cover change /
climate change /
SWAT model /
runoff /
Lhasa River Basin
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基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目(41890824);中央高校基本科研业务费项目;江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(SJCX21_0198)
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