水布垭工程河床覆盖层沉降的灰色预测模型

长江科学院院报 ›› 2006, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (2): 35-37.

水布垭工程河床覆盖层沉降的灰色预测模型

闫生存, 胡颖, 常晓林

出版日期:2006-04-01 发布日期:2012-03-05

Forecast and Analysis of Riverbed Overlays of Shuibuya Project

YAN Sheng-Cun, HU Ying, CHANG Xiao-Lin

Online:2006-04-01 Published:2012-03-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了解水布垭河床覆盖层经强夯处理后的沉降变形及处理效果，通过建立G(1,1)灰色预测模型，编写计算程序，分析其沉降变形规律和沉降机理，对河床保留覆盖层的沉降进行预测分析。结果表明，G(1,1)灰色模型比较适合短序列观测资料的分析和预测，预测精度较高；同时也说明水布垭河床覆盖层经强夯处理后效果较好，处理方案可行且经济合理。

Abstract: To understand the displacement transformation of Shuibuya dam riverbed after overlays being pounded strongly and the disposal effect, this paper makes a G(1,1) model to forecast the displacements of reserved overlays of riverbed of Shuibuya dam by writing programs and analyzing the riverbeds transformation law and displacement mechanism. The computed results show: the gray forecast model is fit well in the analyzing and forecasting short serial data and rather high precision; at the same time, it can show the pounding effect well and reasonablenesess in economy.

闫生存, 胡颖, 常晓林. 水布垭工程河床覆盖层沉降的灰色预测模型[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2006, 23(2): 35-37.

YAN Sheng-Cun, HU Ying, CHANG Xiao-Lin. Forecast and Analysis of Riverbed Overlays of Shuibuya Project[J]. JOURNAL OF YANGTZE RIVER SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH INSTI, 2006, 23(2): 35-37.