为了解水布垭河床覆盖层经强夯处理后的沉降变形 及处理效果，通过建立G(1,1)灰色预测模型，编写计算程序，分析其沉降变形规律和沉 降机理，对河床保留覆盖层的沉降进行预测分析。结果表明，G(1,1)灰色模型比较适合 短序列观测资料的分析和预测，预测精度较高；同时也说明水布垭河床覆盖层经强夯处理后 效果较好，处理方案可行且经济合理。

To understand the displacement transformation of Shuibuya dam riverbed after overlays being pounded strongly and the disposal effect, this paper makes a G(1,1) model to forecast the displacements of reserved overlays of riverbed of Shuibuya dam by writing programs and analyzing the riverbeds transformation law and displacement mechanism. The computed results show: the gray forecast model is fit well in the analyzing and forecasting short serial data and rather high precision; at the same time, it can show the pounding effect well and reasonablenesess in economy.