关键词: 气象模拟, CMIP6气候模式, 平均值分析法, Mann-Kendall突变检验法, 泰勒图分析法, 三峡库区万州段

Abstract: To accurately predict the hydrometeorological trends of the Three Gorges reservoir area and provide a scientific basis for rational allocation of water resources, we evaluate the adaptability of 12 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) global climate models and a multi-model ensemble (MME) to the city of Wanzhou. The evaluation includes analysis of seasonal monthly average precipatation and air temperature, mutation years, and comprehensive simulation abilities using mean value analysis, Mann-Kendall tests, Taylor diagrams and Taylor scores. Our results show that: (1) ACCESS-CM2 models yield better precipitation simulation results prior to impoundment, while MME models show superior performance post-impoundment. (2) MME produces superior temperature simulation results before impoundment, while ACCESS-CM2 exhibits better performance after impoundment. (3) Overall, ACCESS-CM2 demonstrates the best temperature and precipitation simulation results both before and after impoundment.

Key words: meteorological simulation, CMIP6 climate model, mean value analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Taylor diagram, Wanzhou section of Three Gorges Reservoir area