关键词: 堵江风险, 涌浪风险, 稳定性评价, 滑速预测, 旭龙水电站

Abstract: The reservoir area of Xulong hydropower station is featured with steep bank slope and unfavorable geological bodies. To ensure the normal operation of Xulong hydropower station,it is essential to accurately evaluate the stability of unfavorable geological bodies and the risks of landslide dam and surge wave. According to engineering geological mapping,18 unfavorable geological bodies were found in the reservoir area,which belong to Quaternary accumulation bodies and were stable before impoundment with no risk of landslide dam. However,eight of the unfavorable geological bodies may be deformed and damaged after impoundment,and seven may collapse,which is small in scale and will not block the river;accumulation body 16^# may be subject to large-scale landslide which may block the river and generate surges.The stability of accumulation body 16^# was analyzed by using GeoStudio software,and the landslide dam risk was predicted by analytical simulation method and Pan Jiazheng's method. Besides,the influences of surge wave on landslide area,reservoir bank slope and dam were analyzed by empirical formula of landslide surge waves. In conclusion,the instability of accumulation body 16^# will not block the river and landslide surge will not affect the safety of the dam. The research ideas and methods can provide reference for the risk prediction of related projects in the upper reaches of Jinsha River.

Key words: landslide dam risk, landslide surge risk, stability evaluation, landslide speed prediction, Xulong hydropower station