旭龙水电站库区岸坡陡峻,不良地质体发育,为确保水电站正常运行,准确评价不良地质体稳定性和滑坡堵江及涌浪风险至关重要。经工程地质测绘确定库区分布18处不良地质体,均为第四系堆积体,蓄水前稳定,不存在堵江风险。蓄水后有8处堆积体可能存在变形破坏,其中7处堆积体可能发生塌岸,规模小,不会堵江;16^#堆积体可能发生滑坡,规模较大,可能堵江和产生涌浪。利用GeoStudio软件对16^#堆积体进行了稳定性分析,采用分析模拟法和潘家铮法对滑坡堵江风险进行了预测,并利用滑坡涌浪经验公式分析了涌浪对滑坡区、水库上下游岸坡和大坝的影响。结果表明,16^#堆积体失稳不会造成堵江,滑坡涌浪不会影响大坝安全。研究思路与方法可为金沙江上游相关工程的风险预测提供借鉴。

The reservoir area of Xulong hydropower station is featured with steep bank slope and unfavorable geological bodies. To ensure the normal operation of Xulong hydropower station,it is essential to accurately evaluate the stability of unfavorable geological bodies and the risks of landslide dam and surge wave. According to engineering geological mapping,18 unfavorable geological bodies were found in the reservoir area,which belong to Quaternary accumulation bodies and were stable before impoundment with no risk of landslide dam. However,eight of the unfavorable geological bodies may be deformed and damaged after impoundment,and seven may collapse,which is small in scale and will not block the river;accumulation body 16^# may be subject to large-scale landslide which may block the river and generate surges.The stability of accumulation body 16^# was analyzed by using GeoStudio software,and the landslide dam risk was predicted by analytical simulation method and Pan Jiazheng's method. Besides,the influences of surge wave on landslide area,reservoir bank slope and dam were analyzed by empirical formula of landslide surge waves. In conclusion,the instability of accumulation body 16^# will not block the river and landslide surge will not affect the safety of the dam. The research ideas and methods can provide reference for the risk prediction of related projects in the upper reaches of Jinsha River.