长江科学院院报 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (11): 20-25.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20170363

• 水资源与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于ECMWF和WRF的嘉陵江流域面雨量预报精度评估

程中阳1a,2, 张行南1a,1b,1c, 夏达忠1a   

  1. 1.河海大学 a.水文水资源学院;b.水安全与水科学协同创新中心;c.水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,南京 210098;
    2.水利部珠江水利委员会 技术咨询中心,广州 510611
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-05 修回日期:2017-05-11 出版日期:2018-11-01 发布日期:2018-11-16
  • 通讯作者: 张行南(1960-),男,江苏张家港人,教授,博士,博士生导师,主要从事水文物理规律模拟及水文预报方面的研究。E-mail:zxn@hhu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:程中阳(1992-),女,河南新乡人,助理工程师,硕士,主要从事水文物理规律模拟及水文预报方面的研究。E?mail:chengzy@hhu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(51420105014); 水利部公益性行业科研专项(201401034)

Evaluation of Areal Rainfall Forecast Precision in Jialing River Basin by Using ECMWF and WRF Meteorological Products

CHENG Zhong-yang1, 2, ZHANG Xing-nan1, 3, 4, XIA Da-zhong1   

  1. 1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
    2.Technical A dvisory Center of Pearl River Resources Commission of Ministry of Water Resources, Guangzhou 510611,China;
    3.Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety & Hydro-science, Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;
    4.National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • Received:2017-04-05 Revised:2017-05-11 Online:2018-11-01 Published:2018-11-16

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摘要： 将降雨数值预报产品运用到水文预报中已经逐渐成为提高洪水作业预报的预见期的重要手段。为充分了解ECMWF(European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts)和WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)2种数值天气预报产品对嘉陵江研究区面雨量预报的预报精度和误差分布,且为增强洪水预报精度的稳健性提供科学支持,采用TS评分、空报率、漏报率、正确率等指标,对嘉陵江地区7个气象分区内的2016年汛期面雨量预报结果进行了检验,分析了不同分区内各检验指标与预报时效的关系。结果表明:ECMWF数值预报产品和WRF数值预报产品均可用于该地区晴雨预报,且2种产品的预报精度随降水等级的增大呈增大趋势,随预报时效的增加呈减小趋势。综合而言,ECMWF数值预报产品对嘉陵江研究区的预报效果更好。

关键词: 面雨量, 数值预报产品, 嘉陵江流域, 降水分级检验, 预报精度评估

Abstract: Numerical product has been an important means to improve the anticipation period of hydrological forecast. In the purpose of understanding areal rainfall forecast accuracy and error distribution of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) and WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and providing scientific support for improving the robustness of flood forecast accuracy, we verified the forecast results of areal rainfall in flood season of 2016 in seven subareas of Jialing River Basin by examining indexes involving TS score, false alarm rate, point over rate, and success hit rate. Furthermore, we analyzed the relationship between the abovementioned indexes and the period of forecast validity in the subareas. Results suggest that ECMWF product and WRF product could be both applied to the sunny/rainy forecast in the study area. The forecast accuracy improves with the increase of rainfall grade, but reduces with the decrease of forecast validity period. In general, ECMWF has better forecast efficiency in the Jialing river basin.

Key words: areal rainfall, numerical forecast product, Jialing River Basin, precipitation classification, forecast precision evaluation

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