为了解上海地区海塘抵御风浪越顶的能力，对海塘堤顶越浪进行了风险分析。选取典型海塘结构，采用蒙特卡罗法，对各区域的堤顶越浪概率进行了计算，指出近年建设的海塘堤顶越浪风险较小，而崇明三岛地区的越浪风险较大。并通过对影响堤顶越浪的各相关特征参数作敏感性分析，得出高潮位的参数变化是影响海塘堤顶越浪安全性最显著的因素，而适当提高海塘堤顶的安全加高值对减少堤顶越浪风险具有显著的效果。

Wave overtopping risk was analyzed to get an overtopping probability of coastal levees in Shanghai. With representative structure of coastal levees, the overtopping probability of each coastal levee was calculated by Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the overtopping risk of up-to-date coastal levees is less, but one of Chongming area rather large. The overtopping sensitive analysis of each character parameter demonstrated that the parameter variation of high tidal level is the major factor of overtopping occurrence, and the proper rise in free board of coastal levee is a key to prevent overtopping risk.