杭州湾及舟山海域可能最大台风风暴潮增水的数值研究

楚栋栋; 李梦雨; 车助镁; 元媛; 栾华龙; 张继才

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20221606

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长江科学院院报 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5) : 72-78. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20221606

水灾害

杭州湾及舟山海域可能最大台风风暴潮增水的数值研究

楚栋栋¹, 李梦雨¹, 车助镁², 元媛¹, 栾华龙¹, 张继才³

作者信息 +

Numerical Study on Possible Maximum Storm Surge over Hangzhou Bay and Zhoushan Archipelago

CHU Dong-dong¹, LI Meng-yu¹, CHE Zhu-mei², YUAN Yuan¹, LUAN Hua-long¹, ZHANG Ji-cai³

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

基于有限体积海洋模型(FVCOM)构建了一个覆盖中国渤海、黄海和东海的高分辨率风暴潮模型,模拟了1509号台风“灿鸿”引发的风暴潮事件,风暴潮水位模拟结果与实测数据吻合良好。基于最佳台风路径集数据集提供的风场和气压数据,建立了中国近海台风最大风速和最低中心气压的线性回归联系,相关系数达到0.96。在此基础上,以可能最大热带气旋参数为基础,构造了多种假想台风路径,计算了杭州湾和舟山海域的可能最大风暴潮增水。结果表明,沿垂直于海岸线方向登陆的台风在杭州湾和舟山海域引起的风暴潮增水极值最高。杭州湾湾顶可能最大风暴潮水位达8.76 m,舟山海域可能最大风暴潮水位达2.62 m。结果可为杭州湾和舟山海域海洋工程的风险评估和防灾减灾提供参考。

Abstract

A high-resolution storm surge model encompassing the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea is developed based on the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) to simulate and hindcast the storm surges induced by Typhoon Chan-hom. The model’s surge predictions align closely with observed tidal gauge data. Based on the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) datasets, a linear regression is established between typhoons’ maximum wind speeds and their minimum central pressures along China’s coast, achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.96. On this basis, a variety of hypothetical typhoon paths are constructed based on the maximum wind intensity model to calculate the possible maximum storm surges (PMSS) in the Hangzhou Bay and Zhoushan Archipelago. Our findings indicate that typhoons landing perpendicular to the coastline yield the highest surge elevations, peaking at 8.76 m in Hangzhou Bay and 2.62 m in the Zhoushan Archipelago. This research offers valuable insights for the risk assessment and disaster prevention and mitigation for marine engineering projects in the Hangzhou Bay and Zhoushan Archipelago areas.

导出引用

楚栋栋, 李梦雨, 车助镁, 元媛, 栾华龙, 张继才. 杭州湾及舟山海域可能最大台风风暴潮增水的数值研究[J]. 长江科学院院报. 2024, 41(5): 72-78 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20221606

CHU Dong-dong, LI Meng-yu, CHE Zhu-mei, YUAN Yuan, LUAN Hua-long, ZHANG Ji-cai. Numerical Study on Possible Maximum Storm Surge over Hangzhou Bay and Zhoushan Archipelago[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2024, 41(5): 72-78 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20221606

中图分类号： P751

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基金

国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510704);国家重点研发计划重点专项(2017YFA0604100);国家自然科学基金项目(41876086);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2023293/HL,CKSF2021530/HL);国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2040202);中国博士后面上基金项目(2021M700540)