长江科学院院报 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 43-48.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20170988

• 工程安全与灾害防治 • 上一篇    下一篇

西南山区泥石流灾害与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件时空耦合关系分析

高云建1,2,陈宁生1,胡桂胜1,邓明枫1   

  1. 1.中国科学院 水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都 610041;
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-25 修回日期:2017-09-18 出版日期:2019-04-01 发布日期:2019-04-18
  • 通讯作者: 陈宁生(1965-),男,四川成都人,研究员,博士,博士生导师,主要从事山洪泥石流形成理论与防治技术及山地灾害监测预警技术研究。E-mail:chennsh@imde.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:高云建(1991-),男,藏族,四川汶川人,硕士研究生,主要从事山洪泥石流形成理论与防治技术及山地灾害监测预警技术研究。E-mail:1484508787@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流项目(41661134012)

Temporal and Spatial Coupling Relationship Between Debris Flow and El Nino-La Nina Event in Southwest China

GAO Yun-jian1,2, CHEN Ning-sheng1, HU Gui-sheng1, DENG Ming-feng1   

  1. 1.Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2017-08-25 Revised:2017-09-18 Online:2019-04-01 Published:2019-04-18

摘要: 研究在厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件的影响下西南山区泥石流灾害的时空分布特征,将有助于为泥石流灾害的预测预报提供基础指导。根据统计数据,结合GIS空间分析技术,研究西南山区泥石流灾害事件与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件的时空耦合关系。研究结果显示:厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件年西南山区泥石流灾害暴发频率在时间上总体呈增加趋势,且拉尼娜年发生频次多于厄尔尼诺年;厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件年西南山区泥石流灾害暴发在空间分布上主要集中于藏东南山区、横断山区、滇东北、贵州西部、贵州西南部、滇西北、大渡河及雅砻江流域等地区;厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜年西南山区泥石流灾害点的降雨量总体上大于多年平均降雨量。西南山区泥石流灾害事件与厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜事件存在明显的关联性,研究两者关系特征,将有助于对西南山区泥石流灾害进行多方位、准确合理的预测预报。

关键词: 泥石流灾害, 厄尔尼诺, 拉尼娜, GIS空间分析, 西南山区

Abstract: Researching the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of debris flow in mountainous area of southwest China under the influence of El Nino-La Nina event will be conducive to providing basic guidance for the prediction of debris flow disaster. According to statistical data, we examined the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between debris flow events and El Nino-La Nina events in mountainous area of southwest China through GIS spatial analysis approach. We found that 1) in El Nino-La Nina year, the frequency of debris flow disaster in mountainous area of southwest China increased in temporal scale, and the occurrence frequency in La Nina year was larger than that in El Nino year; 2) in spatial scale, under El Nino and La Nina events, debris flow disaster was mainly concentrated in mountainous area of southeast Tibet, Hengduan Mountains, northeast Yunnan Province, west and southwest parts of Guizhou Province, northwest Yunnan Province, Dadu River basin, and Yalong River basin, etc; 3) in El Nino-La Nina year, rainfall amount in the debris flow stricken area was larger than multi-year average rainfall in general. We conclude that debris flow events in mountainous area of southwest China are evidently correlated with El Nino-La Nina events.

Key words: debris flow disaster, El Nino, La Nina, GIS spatial analysis, mountainous area in southwest China

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