长江科学院院报 ›› 2014, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 16-22.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2014.10.003

• 《长江科学院院报》创刊30周年专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于干旱过程模拟的旱情综合评估方法应用研究

许继军a, b, 潘登a, b   

  1. 长江科学院 a.水资源综合利用研究所;b.流域水资源与生态环境科学湖北省重点实验室, 武汉 430010
  • 收稿日期:2014-08-21 修回日期:2014-10-17 出版日期:2014-10-01 发布日期:2014-10-20
  • 作者简介:许继军(1971-), 男, 湖北武汉人, 教授级高级工程师, 博士, 主要从事水资源管理、水文模型研究及应用、水旱灾害评估预报, (电话)13554200568(电子信箱)xujj07@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(51179012);水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室开放基金(skehse-2012-A-05)

Comprehensive Assessment of Drought Severity Based on Its Evolution Course Simulation

XU Ji-jun1,2, PAN Deng1,2   

  1. 1.Water Resources Department, Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010, China;
    2.Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources in River Basins and Ecological Environment Science, Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010, China
  • Received:2014-08-21 Revised:2014-10-17 Online:2014-10-01 Published:2014-10-20

摘要: 在对国内外干旱评估方法研究进行综述的基础上,指出干旱起因是降水偏少,但发展成灾,则有一个缓慢渐进过程,它不仅取决于降水、气温等气象条件,还与地形、土壤、作物等因素密切相关。考虑到旱灾的成因是多条件的,旱灾的影响和体现也是多方面的,只有结合干旱发展的各阶段,才能全面地认识和评估旱情。利用基于分布式水文模拟的干旱模型,在完整模拟干旱发生发展和结束过程的基础上,整合多种旱情指标,提出能反映干旱发展过程主要特征的旱情综合评估方法体系,并以长江上游川渝地区2006年严重干旱事件为例,开展了应用示例研究。

Abstract: The research status of drought severity assessment was reviewed firstly. It was noticed that the beginning of drought is the scarcity of precipitation, but there is a slow and gradual evolution course to cause final disaster loss. The key factors are not only precipitation and temperature, but also the landform, soil, crop and others. By using distributed hydrological modeling, a drought model was introduced to simulate the drought developing processes. Furthermore, according to the simulation results of the drought model, the method and index system of comprehensive assessment were proposed. The assessment method was demonstrated in the upper Yangtze River basin to review the evolution course of drought events of 2006.

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