LSTM-based Prediction of Short-term Water Level for Three Gorges and Gezhouba Cascade Powerplants

WANG Tao, XU Yang, CAO Hui, LIU Ya-xin, MA Hao-yu, ZHANG Zheng, XIE Shuai, CHANG Xin-yu

Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4) : 80-86.

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Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4) : 80-86. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20240008
Water Resources

LSTM-based Prediction of Short-term Water Level for Three Gorges and Gezhouba Cascade Powerplants

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Abstract

Water level prediction for the Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade hydropower stations is crucial for their safe and stable operation and overall benefits. Nevertheless, due to the combined effects of multiple factors, such as the complex transformation between dynamic and static storage-capacity calculations and the unsteady flow downstream of the stations, traditional methods struggle to accurately predict short-term water levels. When the stations perform peak-shaving and frequency-regulation tasks under complex operating conditions, there is a risk of violating scheduling regulations and opening the gates, which may lead to engineering safety hazards and economic losses. In this study, we employed the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep-learning method to develop an ultra-short-term water-level prediction model for the Three Gorges-Gezhouba Hydropower Stations. We utilized water-level, inflow, and output data to forecast the ultra-short-term water-level processes of the stations. Subsequently, we analyzed the prediction accuracy of the model using data from peak-shaving scenarios. The results show that the model exhibits high overall accuracy, stability, and adaptability, and maintains stable prediction accuracy under different peak-shaving conditions. However, the prediction results tend to be homogenized at extreme water levels. The average error of 24-hour water-level prediction for the upstream of the Three Gorges and Gezhouba is less than 0.05 m. These findings can offer technical support for the refined scheduling of cascade hydropower stations.

Key words

water level prediction / cascade powerplant / LSTM / Three Gorges powerplant / Gezhouba powerplant / error analysis

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WANG Tao , XU Yang , CAO Hui , et al . LSTM-based Prediction of Short-term Water Level for Three Gorges and Gezhouba Cascade Powerplants[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2025, 42(4): 80-86 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20240008

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Abstract
金沙江下游—三峡已形成六库联合调度格局,调度维数增多,约束庞杂交织,优化目标多样,给调度方案制定带来极大困难。针对传统粒子群算法求解调度模型寻优能力不足的难题,提出多种群引力粒子群算法,建立优化调度模型并应用改进算法求解。算法测试和应用结果表明,多种群引力粒子群算法寻优性能更加先进,更适用于求解梯级水库优化调度问题。实例表明,上游龙头电站通过减少自身发电量可以使下游电站和梯级发电量增加。
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From the lower reaches of the Jinsha River to the Three Gorges, a complex joint scheduling pattern comprising six reservoirs has emerged. This pattern is characterized by an expanded scope of scheduling, numerous and diverse constraints, and a range of optimization objectives. Consequently, formulating appropriate scheduling schemes has become particularly challenging. Recognizing the limitations of traditional particle swarm algorithms in addressing this scheduling model, we propose a multi-group gravitational particle swarm algorithm to enhance the optimization capabilities of the scheduling model. To this end, a multi-scale and multi-objective nested scheduling model is established, and the improved algorithm is applied to solve it. The test and application results demonstrate that the multi-group gravitational particle swarm algorithm exhibits superior optimization performance compared to other approaches. Moreover, it is more suitable for achieving optimal operation of cascade reservoirs. A case study further illustrates that the upstream leading power station can enhance the generation of downstream power stations and cascade stations by reducing its own power generation capacity.
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