Risk Assessment of Water Pollution Emergencies for Water Diversion Project Based on Cloud Model: A Case Study on Henan Section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20230890

Abstract

Abstract:

Assessing the risks and reducing the hazard level of water pollution emergencies in water diversion projects are of prominent significance to leveraging the benefits of such projects and enhancing regional water supply safety. The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) model was employed to establish a risk evaluation index system that reflects the characteristics of risk sources and risk receptors. A method of evaluating the risk grades of water pollution emergencies was proposed by utilizing the cloud model to quantitatively assess the risk water pollution emergency in the Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project. Findings revealed low risks of water pollution emergency in the studied section. Specifically, the risks of two sections were classified as significant (Level II), while five were designated as general (Level IV). These results aligned with qualitative evaluations considering risk source magnitude, risk receptor vulnerability, and risk control effectiveness. Our study offers a novel approach for assessing the risks of water pollution emergencies in water diversion projects and lays a foundation for risk management in the study area.

Key words: water pollution emergency, water diversion project, cloud model, risk assessment, Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

CLC Number:

TV11

Cite this article

CHEN Shu, WANG Hui, ZHANG Tai-he, FAN Jia-yi, LIU Shuang, WANG Jing. Risk Assessment of Water Pollution Emergencies for Water Diversion Project Based on Cloud Model: A Case Study on Henan Section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(10): 48-55.

share this article

0
/ / Recommend

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: http://ckyyb.crsri.cn/EN/10.11988/ckyyb.20230890

http://ckyyb.crsri.cn/EN/Y2024/V41/I10/48

Figures/Tables 7

Fig.1 Risk assessment index system of water pollution emergencies for water diversion project

Table 1 Risk assessment classification criteria of water pollution emergencies for water diversion project

风险等级	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级
风险指数	(0.75,1]	(0.5,0.75]	(0.25,0.5]	[0,0.25]

Table 1 Risk assessment classification criteria of water pollution emergencies for water diversion project

风险等级	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级
风险指数	(0.75,1]	(0.5,0.75]	(0.25,0.5]	[0,0.25]

Table 2 Classification criteria for risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for water diversion project

指标名称	指标描述	不同风险等级与风险指数下取值
		Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级
		[0.75,1]	[0.5,0.75)	[0.25,0.5)	[0,0.25)
沿线公路里程 (D₁)	沿线公路长度与输水明渠长度比值/%	[100,200]	[50,100)	[25,50)	[0,25)
跨河桥梁数量 (D₂)	输水明渠上实际可通车的跨河桥梁数量/座	≥30	[20,30)	[10,20)	[0,10)
固定风险源规模 (D₃)	工业企业、有毒化学品仓库、污水处理厂等密集程度	高度密集	密集	较分散	分散
沿线航道里程 (D₄)	沿线航道长度与输水明渠长度比值/%	[75,100]	[50,75)	[25,50)	[0,25)
入河排污口数量 (P₁)	直接向输水明渠内排放污水的工业排污口、生活排污口以及混合排污口数量	工业排污口≥10个;或生活排污口≥30个;或工业生活混合排污口≥20个	工业排污口6~9个;或生活排污口20~29个;或工业生活混合排污口10~19个	工业排污口2~5个;或生活排污口10~19个;或工业生活混合排污口4~9个	工业排污口<2个;或生活排污口<10个;或工业生活混合排污口<3个
汇入支流情况 (P₂)	汇入支流数量/个	≥30	[20,30)	[10,20)	[0,10]
汇入支流情况 (P₂)	截污工程比例/%	[0,25)	[25,50)	[50,75)	[75,100]
输水水质状况 (S₁)	输水水质类别	Ⅰ类水	Ⅱ类水	Ⅲ类水	Ⅳ、V类水
闸泵工程情况 (S₂)	每10 km闸泵工程数量/座	[0,0.5)	[0.5,1)	[1,2)	≥2
水库调蓄能力 (S₃)	事故段下游调蓄水库体积与事故段日输水量比值	[0,0.5)	[0.5,1)	[1,2)	≥2
受影响人口数量 (I₁)	受影响人口数量占工程受益人口总数的比值/%	[75,100]	[50,75)	[25,50)	[0,25)
社会经济影响 (I₂)	受水区范围内工业企业减产损失、服务业营收损失、农牧渔减产损失以及水污染事件应急处置费用等/(万元)	≥10 000	[5 000,10 000)	[1 000,5 000)	[0,1 000)
防护栏安装比例 (R₁)	防护栏安装长度与输水明渠长度的比值/%	[0,50)	[50,100)	[100,150)	[150,200]
视频监控情况 (R₂)	输水明渠上视频监控安装密集程度	分散	较分散	密集	高度密集
应急处理能力 (R₃)	应急预案、应急设备、应急队伍等方面情况	无应急预案;无应急队伍;无应急设备	有初步应急预案;有少量应急设备;有应急队伍但人数不足	有较完善应急预案;有较多应急设备;有较多应急人员	有完善应急预案;有足够应急设备;有健全的应急队伍且定期开展应急演练

Table 2 Classification criteria for risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for water diversion project

指标名称	指标描述	不同风险等级与风险指数下取值
		Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级
		[0.75,1]	[0.5,0.75)	[0.25,0.5)	[0,0.25)
沿线公路里程 (D₁)	沿线公路长度与输水明渠长度比值/%	[100,200]	[50,100)	[25,50)	[0,25)
跨河桥梁数量 (D₂)	输水明渠上实际可通车的跨河桥梁数量/座	≥30	[20,30)	[10,20)	[0,10)
固定风险源规模 (D₃)	工业企业、有毒化学品仓库、污水处理厂等密集程度	高度密集	密集	较分散	分散
沿线航道里程 (D₄)	沿线航道长度与输水明渠长度比值/%	[75,100]	[50,75)	[25,50)	[0,25)
入河排污口数量 (P₁)	直接向输水明渠内排放污水的工业排污口、生活排污口以及混合排污口数量	工业排污口≥10个;或生活排污口≥30个;或工业生活混合排污口≥20个	工业排污口6~9个;或生活排污口20~29个;或工业生活混合排污口10~19个	工业排污口2~5个;或生活排污口10~19个;或工业生活混合排污口4~9个	工业排污口<2个;或生活排污口<10个;或工业生活混合排污口<3个
汇入支流情况 (P₂)	汇入支流数量/个	≥30	[20,30)	[10,20)	[0,10]
汇入支流情况 (P₂)	截污工程比例/%	[0,25)	[25,50)	[50,75)	[75,100]
输水水质状况 (S₁)	输水水质类别	Ⅰ类水	Ⅱ类水	Ⅲ类水	Ⅳ、V类水
闸泵工程情况 (S₂)	每10 km闸泵工程数量/座	[0,0.5)	[0.5,1)	[1,2)	≥2
水库调蓄能力 (S₃)	事故段下游调蓄水库体积与事故段日输水量比值	[0,0.5)	[0.5,1)	[1,2)	≥2
受影响人口数量 (I₁)	受影响人口数量占工程受益人口总数的比值/%	[75,100]	[50,75)	[25,50)	[0,25)
社会经济影响 (I₂)	受水区范围内工业企业减产损失、服务业营收损失、农牧渔减产损失以及水污染事件应急处置费用等/(万元)	≥10 000	[5 000,10 000)	[1 000,5 000)	[0,1 000)
防护栏安装比例 (R₁)	防护栏安装长度与输水明渠长度的比值/%	[0,50)	[50,100)	[100,150)	[150,200]
视频监控情况 (R₂)	输水明渠上视频监控安装密集程度	分散	较分散	密集	高度密集
应急处理能力 (R₃)	应急预案、应急设备、应急队伍等方面情况	无应急预案;无应急队伍;无应急设备	有初步应急预案;有少量应急设备;有应急队伍但人数不足	有较完善应急预案;有较多应急设备;有较多应急人员	有完善应急预案;有足够应急设备;有健全的应急队伍且定期开展应急演练

Fig.2 Generalized map of Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

Table 3 Values of risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

评价指标	不同评价河段的指标风险指数
评价指标	A	A1	A2	A3	B	B1	B2
D₁	0.72	0.73	0.71	0.72	0.87	0.93	0.77
D₂	0.60	0.10	0.25	0.25	0.40	0.25	0.15
D₃	0.20	0.12	0.15	0.13	0.25	0.21	0.24
P₁	0.62	0.08	0.36	0.29	0	0	0
P₂	0.48	0.32	0.14	0.03	0.19	0.10	0.09
S₁	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33
S₂	0.66	0.42	0.69	0.30	0.28	0.25	0.11
S₃	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.18	0.18	0.18
I₁	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.63	0.63	0.63
I₂	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.16	0.16	0.16
R₁	0.18	0	0	0.93	0	0	0
R₂	0.87	0.83	0.83	0.90	0.83	0.83	0.83
R₃	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10

Table 3 Values of risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

评价指标	不同评价河段的指标风险指数
评价指标	A	A1	A2	A3	B	B1	B2
D₁	0.72	0.73	0.71	0.72	0.87	0.93	0.77
D₂	0.60	0.10	0.25	0.25	0.40	0.25	0.15
D₃	0.20	0.12	0.15	0.13	0.25	0.21	0.24
P₁	0.62	0.08	0.36	0.29	0	0	0
P₂	0.48	0.32	0.14	0.03	0.19	0.10	0.09
S₁	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33
S₂	0.66	0.42	0.69	0.30	0.28	0.25	0.11
S₃	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.18	0.18	0.18
I₁	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.63	0.63	0.63
I₂	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.16	0.16	0.16
R₁	0.18	0	0	0.93	0	0	0
R₂	0.87	0.83	0.83	0.90	0.83	0.83	0.83
R₃	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10

Table 4 Weights of risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

指标	主观权重	客观权重	综合权重
D₁	0.116	0.089	0.097
D₂	0.116	0.051	0.071
D₃	0.097	0.048	0.063
P₁	0.140	0.101	0.113
P₂	0.116	0.055	0.074
S₁	0.048	0	0.015
S₂	0.048	0.042	0.044
S₃	0.058	0.077	0.071
I₁	0.058	0.077	0.071
I₂	0.048	0.077	0.068
R₁	0.081	0.206	0.168
R₂	0.033	0.177	0.133
R₃	0.041	0	0.012

Table 4 Weights of risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

指标	主观权重	客观权重	综合权重
D₁	0.116	0.089	0.097
D₂	0.116	0.051	0.071
D₃	0.097	0.048	0.063
P₁	0.140	0.101	0.113
P₂	0.116	0.055	0.074
S₁	0.048	0	0.015
S₂	0.048	0.042	0.044
S₃	0.058	0.077	0.071
I₁	0.058	0.077	0.071
I₂	0.048	0.077	0.068
R₁	0.081	0.206	0.168
R₂	0.033	0.177	0.133
R₃	0.041	0	0.012

Table 5 Risk assessment result of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

评价河段	确定度				风险等级
评价河段	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级	风险等级
A	0.217	0.392*	0.168	0.244	Ⅱ
A1	0.197	0.153	0.173	0.382*	Ⅳ
A2	0.197	0.198	0.221	0.311*	Ⅳ
A3	0.216	0.346*	0.196	0.241	Ⅱ
B	0.223	0.106	0.186	0.391*	Ⅳ
B1	0.211	0.094	0.119	0.456*	Ⅳ
B2	0.186	0.130	0.080	0.498*	Ⅳ

Table 5 Risk assessment result of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

评价河段	确定度				风险等级
评价河段	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级	风险等级
A	0.217	0.392*	0.168	0.244	Ⅱ
A1	0.197	0.153	0.173	0.382*	Ⅳ
A2	0.197	0.198	0.221	0.311*	Ⅳ
A3	0.216	0.346*	0.196	0.241	Ⅱ
B	0.223	0.106	0.186	0.391*	Ⅳ
B1	0.211	0.094	0.119	0.456*	Ⅳ
B2	0.186	0.130	0.080	0.498*	Ⅳ

Related Articles 15

[1]	WANG Xing-ming, SHEN Jie, FAN Ting-yu, CHU Zhao-xia, DONG Zhong-bing, DONG Peng, LIANG Shu-ying, DENG Rui-lai. Characteristics of Heavy Metal Distribution and Health Risk Assessment in the Inland River Water Environment of Wuhu City [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(9): 44-52.
[2]	CHEN Yi-mei, WANG Peng-chao. Evaluation System for the Service Status of Beach Protection in Midstream of the Yangtze River [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(8): 23-30.
[3]	LIU Cheng-kun, ZHANG Hang, JING Zheng, YANG Xing-yue, ZHANG Li. Three-dimensional Water Quality Deduction Method Based on Digital Twin Technology [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(8): 189-196.
[4]	FENG Gang, HUANG Qiang, FANG Wei, LI Pei, ZHENG Xu-dong, YANG Cheng. Flood Risk Assessment of Xunjiang Flood Control Protection Area in the Pearl River Basin [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(7): 79-86.
[5]	LIU Yun-jia, YOU Wan-min, ZHANG Lei, PAN Tian-wen. Hydraulic Control Technology for Double-deck Gate of a Control Sluice for the Yangtze-Hanjiang River Diversion Project [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(10): 101-109.
[6]	LI Jing-gang, CHEN Xiao-nan, QIAO Yu, LI Tian-yi. Winter Temperature Variations in the Section of South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project North of Anyang River in the Past 41 Years [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(10): 165-174.
[7]	YANG Meng, QIN Xi, YANG Xu, WANG Ying, XU Hang. Temperature Control Measures during Construction Period for the Tunnel Lining of Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(10): 175-182.
[8]	WANG Jian, QI Yong-feng, GENG Fei. Crack Analysis and Crack Prevention of Large Lock Head for Water Diversion Project from Yangtze River to Huaihe River during Construction [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(10): 189-194.
[9]	LIU Yun-cai, HOU Cheng, LIU Wei-qi, SHI Jun-bo, ZOU Jin-gui. Automated Health Diagnosis Technology for Stations with Massive BDS Deformation Monitoring Data [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(10): 201-205.
[10]	ZHU Yong-hui, GUO Xiao-hu, LI Ling-yun, WANG Yan-jun, ZHANG Dan. Experimental Study on Restoring Navigable Water Level in Near-dam Section Downstream of Danjiangkou during Dry Season for the Water Diversion Project from the Yangtze River to the Hanjiang River [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(10): 6-13.
[11]	DONG Jing, ZHOU Wang-zi, JIANG Zhi-bing, ZHAI Ze-bing, HE Yao. Hydraulic Characteristics and Optimization of Bifurcated Pipe [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(10): 94-100.
[12]	LIU Feng-zhu, ZHANG Chi-peng, YANG Ze-yan, LUO Huan, LUO Jiang-lan. Contribution Source and Health Risk Assessment of Antimony in Waters Upstream of Duliu River Polluted by Mining Activity [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(1): 59-65.
[13]	HU Can-can, ZHOU Lan-ting, DENG Si-yuan. Evaluation of Urban Waterlogging Control Based on Cloud Model [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2023, 40(9): 78-84.
[14]	WANG Ji-liang, XIANG Jia-bo, YAN Hui-ming, DENG Zheng-rong, JIA Jian-hong, XU Qi. Route Selection for Water Diversion Project from Three Gorges Reservoir to Hanjiang River Based on Engineering Geology [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2023, 40(5): 100-105.
[15]	FANG Guo-hua, ZHANG Wen-hui, GUO Feng, TANG Ya-jun. Assessment of River Ecosystem Health in Plain River Network Using Cloud Model with Improved Order Relation Analysis [J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2023, 40(4): 9-16.

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Comments

Abstract
Figures/Tables
Related Articles
Recommended Articles
Metrics
Comments

TOP