Abstract: To achieve sustainable development of regional water resources and ensure the sound development of social economy, we have established a comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity based on the extension cloud model. This model incorporates a well-rounded evaluation index system comprising four dimensions: water resources, society, economy, and ecological environment. By employing a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) method, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of the water resources carrying capacity in Liaoning Province from 2012 to 2019. Furthermore, we have introduced an obstacle degree model to identify the main factors influencing water resources carrying capacity in Liaoning Province. Our findings reveal that the water resources carrying capacity of Liaoning Province was in a critical state between 2012 and 2015, with a complex pattern of changes observed from 2016 to 2019, ultimately indicating an overall decline. Specifically, water resources per capita and the water supply modulus, as calculated by the obstacle degree, have emerged as the primary influencing factors. In conclusion, the water resources carrying capacity in Liaoning Province has declined. To enhance the carrying capacity of water resources, it is imperative to reinforce comprehensive water resources management.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, extension cloud model, analytical hierarchy process method, CRITIC, combinatorial weighting, Liaoning Province