Trend Analysis on the  Annual Minimum Monthly Runoff Series of Yangtze River at Hankou Hydrological Station Based on Pearson Type III Probability Distribution

JIANG Cong; XIONG Li-hua

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2013.07.004

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Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7) : 16-21. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2013.07.004

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Trend Analysis on the Annual Minimum Monthly Runoff Series of Yangtze River at Hankou Hydrological Station Based on Pearson Type III Probability Distribution

JIANG Cong, XIONG Li-hua

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Abstract

It is very important to research the inconsistency (or nonstationarity) of hydrological time series under changing circumstance. Classical regression models, which are widely used in traditional hydrological trend analysis, are based on the assumption that the hydrological variables follow the normal distribution. However, this assumption does not consist with the practical findings in China that most hydrological random variables follow the Pearson type III (PⅢ) distribution. In this paper, the regression model based on the assumption of the PⅢ distribution is introduced to analyze the trend of annual minimum monthly runoff series of the Yangtze River at Hankou hydrological station observed over the period of 1952-2010. It is found that the regression model based on the PⅢ distribution is more effective than the regression model based on the normal distribution in fitting the trend of hydrological series. Furthermore, the more flexible polynomial is used to analyze the trend of the hydrological series.

Key words

trend analysis / regression model / normal distribution / PⅢ distribution / annual minimum monthly runoff

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JIANG Cong, XIONG Li-hua. Trend Analysis on the Annual Minimum Monthly Runoff Series of Yangtze River at Hankou Hydrological Station Based on Pearson Type III Probability Distribution[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2013, 30(7): 16-21 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2013.07.004

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