Abstract: The observed precipitation series from thirteen national weather stations during 1961 to 2001 and NCEP reanalysis data were used to establish a statistical downscaling model in the Poyang Lake basin. The output data of HadCM3 under A2 and B2 scenarios were inputted to automatically statistical downscaling model to predict the future precipitation change during 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099 periods. The results show that the precipitation will increase in the most area of the Poyang Lake basin, and maximum increase rate can reach 11.15% in the end of this century.

Key words: climate change  ,  , statistical downscaling  ,  , precipitation prediction  ,  , 0Poyang Lake basin