Abstract: On the basis of improved TOPSIS model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, per capita water supply, utilization rate of water resource, live use water quota, water requirement per ten thousand yuan output value, water supply module, water requirement module, and water ratio and utilization rate of water resources for ecological environment were adopted as the evaluation indices, water resources carrying capacity under three different scenarios was predicted and evaluated from 2007-2030 for Yanzhou City. The evaluated results show as follows: Currently, the water resourse in Yanzhou City has been developed considerably, but still has certain potential for development.In future 20 years, with the further development of economy and society, water resources carrying capacity will be become weaker continuously, but still will be in the carrying range,water resource may gradually be a factor restricting the development of economy and society. Developing water source vigorously, establishing water-saving society and allocation water resources rationally are the main measures which improve water resources carrying capacity.

Key words:  water resources carrying capacity , improved TOPSIS model , fuzzy comprehensive evaluation , Yanzhou City