Trend test methods, including linear regression, accumulated anomaly, Theil-Sen’s estimation and Mann-Kendall trend, were employed to respectively analyze the variation trend and abruption of runoff series measured at Xingshan gauging station in Xiangxi river watershed. Result showed that the annual runoff of Xiangxi watershed was 11.59×108 m3 the annual runoff, spring runoff and autumn runoff decreased remarkably (all passed significant test at 0.05 level) however, the runoff trends in summer and winter were not significant. The abruption of annual runoff appeared in 1989, spring abruption in 1978, autumn abruption occurred in 1989, and winter abruption in 1988 there were 7 abruptions in summer. From 1965 to 1990, runoff and precipitation were consistent, which showed that the runoff variation was well associated with precipitation while since 1991, the runoff decreased with the gradual increase of precipitation, which revealed that human activity has affected runoff and the influence cannot be ignored.
Key words
Xiangxi river watershed /
runoff /
trend analysis /
abruption analysis
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
References
[1] 王随继, 闫云霞, 颜 明, 等.皇甫川流域降水和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率分析——累积量斜率变化率比较方法的提出及应用[J].地理学报, 2012, 67(3):388-397.(WANG Sui-ji, YAN Yun-xia, YAN Ming, et al. Contributions of Precipitation and Human Activities to the Runoff Change of the Huangfuchuan Drainage Basin: Application of Comparative Method of the Slope Changing Ratio of Cumulative Quantity[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(3):388-397.(in Chinese))
[2] KAHYA E, KALAYC S. Trend Analysis of Stream Flow in Turkey[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2004, 289(1/4): 128-144.
[3] 李凤清, 叶 麟, 刘瑞秋, 等.香溪河流域水体环境因子研究[J].生态科学, 2007, 26(3):199-207.(LI Feng-qing, YE Lin, LIU Rui-qiu, et al. Investigation on Aquatic Environmental Factors in Xiangxi River Watershed[J]. Ecological Science, 2007, 26(3):199-207.(in Chinese))
[4] 蔡庆华, 孙志禹.三峡水库水环境与水生态研究的进展与展望[J]. 湖泊科学, 2012, 24(2) : 169-177.(CAI Qing-hua, SUN Zhi-yu. Water Environment and Aquatic Ecosystem of Three Gorges Reservoir: Progress and Prospects [J]. Journal of Lake Sciences, 2012, 24(2): 169-177.(in Chinese))
[5] 孙长安.香溪河流域土地利用与水土流失的关系研究[D]. 北京:北京林业大学, 2008:22-56.(SUN Chang-an. Study on the Relationship between Land use and Soil and Water Loss in Xiangxi Watershed[D]. Beijing: Beijing Forestry University, 2008:22-56.(in Chinese))
[6] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京: 气象出版社, 2007.(WEI Feng-ying. Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology [M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2007.(in Chinese))
[7] YUE S, PILON P, PHINNEY B, et al. The Influence of Autocorrelation on the Ability to Detect Trend in Hydrological Series[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2002, 16(9): 1807-1829.
[8] GOCIC M, TRAJKOVIC S. Analysis of Changes in Meteorological Variables Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimator Statistical Tests in Serbia[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2013, 100: 172-182.
[9] 侯保俭, 王渺林.长江上游径流趋势分析及分布式小时模型应用[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版), 2011, 30(2):291-294.(HOU Bao-jian, WANG Miao-lin. Runoff Trend Analysis and Distributed Hourly Model Application Study of the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Sciences), 2011, 30(2):291-294. (in Chinese))
[10]王顺久.长江上游川江段气温、降水及径流变化趋势分析[J].资源科学, 2009, 31(7): 142-149.(WANG Shun-jiu. Changing Pattern of the Temperature, Precipitation and Runoff in Chuanjiang Section of the Yangtze River[J]. Resources Science, 2009, 31(7): 142-149.(in Chinese))
PDF(1378 KB)
