Dynamic Assessment of Water Environmental Risk in the Hanjiang River Basin Based on the DPSIRM Model

ZHENG Ting-yu, LYU Hong-de, YU Xin-xin, XUE Yu-hua, SHEN Xiao-mei, JIANG Ming-dong

Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 0

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Medical Journal of the Chinese People's Armed Police Forces
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Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 0 DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20260530

Dynamic Assessment of Water Environmental Risk in the Hanjiang River Basin Based on the DPSIRM Model

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Abstract

As the core water source area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, identifying the causal transmission pathways and management response characteristics of water environmental risks in the Hanjiang River Basin is fundamental to achieving refined watershed governance. This study constructs a full-chain “Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response-Management” (DPSIRM) evaluation framework to measure the water environmental risk indices of eight cities in the Hanjiang River Basin from 2010 to 2024, and utilizes kernel density estimation and Granger causality tests to explore their spatiotemporal evolution patterns and internal transmission mechanisms. The results indicate that: ① During the study period, the overall risk in the basin exhibited a significant downward trend, with the average value decreasing from 0.423 to 0.293, and regional disparities continuously narrowing. ② The alleviation of environmental pressure (P) was the primary cause of risk reduction, but the management (M) index-indicating institutional gaps-maintained an upward trend, reflecting a systemic contradiction where the supply of management elements lags behind governance demands. ③ A sequential transmission relationship of "Pressure-State-Impact" exists within the system, while management exhibits a sustained cross-period regulatory effect on improving environmental state and alleviating negative impacts, whereas its regulatory efficacy on the Driving Force and Response subsystems demonstrates a two-period time lag. The research conclusions provide empirical support for systematic environmental governance and dynamic risk prevention and control in the Hanjiang River Basin.

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water environmental risk / DPSIRM model / risk assessment / transmission mechanism / Hanjiang River Basin

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ZHENG Ting-yu , LYU Hong-de , YU Xin-xin , et al . Dynamic Assessment of Water Environmental Risk in the Hanjiang River Basin Based on the DPSIRM Model[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 0 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20260530

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