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Impact of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on River Base Flow in Source Region of the Yangtze River
SHAO Jun, LIU Mei-qun, QIAN Xiao-yan, XIONG Ying, CHEN Chun-hua
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8) : 206-212.
PDF(5898 KB)
PDF(5898 KB)
Impact of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on River Base Flow in Source Region of the Yangtze River
[Objective] Base flow is an important component of runoff. Studies investigating changes in river base flow and the associated mechanisms in the source region of the Yangtze River remain limited. The recharge conditions and influencing factors of river base flow have not been fully elucidated, and no relevant studies have yet examined the effects of climate oscillations on river base flow. Using observed hydrological data from the source region of the Yangtze River, this study aims to analyze the evolution of river base flow and its response to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), explore the relationship between river base flow and PDO and the possible underlying mechanisms, and provide a reference for understanding the hydrological cycle and protecting water resources in the region under climate change. [Methods] The modified Kalinin method was employed to separate base flow from the measured runoff at the Zhimenda hydrological station. Correlation analysis and cross-wavelet analysis were used to analyze the response of river base flow to PDO and the correlation between them. Meteorological observations from the source region of the Yangtze River were analyzed to identify the main factors driving changes in river base flow. The potential mechanism by which PDO affected river base flow in the source region of the Yangtze River was explored from the perspective of atmospheric circulation. [Results] (1) Seasonal and annual river base flow in the source region of the Yangtze River increased significantly. Before 2000, base flow showed alternating high- and low-flow conditions but remained relatively stable. After 2000, river base flow showed a marked increasing trend that has continued to the present.(2) River base flow in the source region of the Yangtze River was negatively correlated with PDO. Annual base flow was significantly negatively correlated with the PDO index for the original series and the 3- and 5-year moving averages, with all correlations significant at the 99% confidence level. The two series exhibited an antiphase resonance at the 8-16-month timescale throughout the study period.(3) PDO had a significant influence on river base flow in the source region of the Yangtze River, with a typical negative correlation between them. When PDO was in a positive phase, a negative base-flow anomaly was more likely, indicating below-normal flow conditions. Conversely, when PDO was in a negative phase, a positive base-flow anomaly was more likely, indicating above-normal flow conditions.(4) Precipitation and temperature were the primary factors driving changes in base flow in the source region. Beginning around 2000, temperature increased significantly in the source region, followed by an abrupt increase in precipitation around 2008. The base-flow trend was generally consistent with the corresponding trends in precipitation and temperature.(5) Through teleconnections and atmospheric wave trains, PDO induced the formation of high-pressure ridges and anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau, which in turn altered temperature, precipitation, and other meteorological variables in the source region. During the negative PDO phase, sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and western North Pacific induced anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Atmospheric teleconnections and wave-train propagation through the westerlies strengthened the anticyclonic anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau, resulting in surface warming, increased precipitation, and consequently increased river base flow in the source region of the Yangtze River. The opposite occurred during the positive PDO phase. [Conclusion] River base flow plays an important role in maintaining both aquatic and terrestrial habitats in the source region of the Yangtze River. This study provides an exploratory statistical assessment of the influence of PDO on river base flow. Future studies may combine numerical simulations, such as coupled climate-hydrological models, to further verify the chain of processes involving high-pressure ridges, anticyclonic circulation anomalies, changes in temperature and precipitation, and the river base-flow response.
river base flow / Pacific Decadal Oscillation / modified Kalinin method / cross-wavelet analysis / source region of the Yangtze River
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Hydrologists have studied base‐flow recessions for one hundred years or more. By the early nineteen hundreds much of the basic mathematical development was completed, and some methods of hydrograph analysis were known. Recent mathematical work, although repetitive to some extent of the earlier efforts, has the advantage that it assesses more closely the effects of the simplifying assumptions used to obtain solutions. Most workers have preferred to follow graphical or statistical rather than mathematical approaches. The reasons appear to lie mainly in problems caused by the assumptions and in difficulties in interpreting the real stream hydrograph. Also, base flow can come from numerous sources besides ground water. Other complications arise from the question of whether the basin response is linear or nonlinear, because the response is a function of various geologic and hydrologic factors in addition to those considered in the mathematical derivations.
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通天河是长江源区最大干流,其径流与基流的变化基本上反映了整个源区的水文与水文地质特征。根据长江源区通天河流域的径流变化及区域水文地质条件等特征,首次选用改进加里宁方法计算了通天河直门达水文站1957-2009年实测径流量的基流;分析了该流域基流量的多年变化,研究了拐点流量Q0、退水指数α值及比例系数B值与基流量的关系。此外,还根据各河流比例系数B值的试算结果,分析了径流中地下水补给的比例变化。结果表明:基流量与径流量存在一定的正相关关系(相关系数R=0.82);3个参数对基流量的影响由大到小为比例系数B值、拐点流量Q0及退水指数α值。通天河多年B值的变化反映了河道径流补给中地下水组分剧烈减少—平稳增加—平稳减少—剧烈增加和地表水组分相对剧烈增加—平稳缓慢减少—平稳缓慢增加—剧烈减少的趋势的过程。分析表明,影响B值变化的主要因素有气象因素(降水、气温)、水文地质条件(冻土等)以及地理特征等。
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Regional-scale normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from satellite remote sensing observations and gridded climate data were used to study the seasonal responses and underlying mechanisms of vegetation growth over Tibetan Plateau to Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at period of 1982-2015, by performing Spearman correlation analysis and enhanced multivariate regression model: structural equation model (SEM). The results showed that there was significant negative correlation between PDO index and mean growing-season (April-October) NDVI over Tibetan Plateau; however, marked seasonal divergence in the relationship between PDO and vegetation growth existed among different seasons. It characterized with stronger negative correlation between PDO and NDVI in autumn than in summer, and winter PDO had significant effect on consequent summer vegetation growth. Additionally, it showed great divergence in control processes of PDO on vegetation growth among different seasons, with significant control of PDO on both temperature and precipitation in summer, and significant control of PDO on temperature only in autumn.
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