[Objective] Since the operation of Xiaolangdi reservoir in 1999， continuous erosion has happened in the lower Yellow River. As of 2023， the accumulated erosion volume of Tie-Li reach （from Tiexie station to Lijin station） in the lower Yellow River has reached 2.2 billion m³. However， the erosion efficiency gradually decreases from 13.6 kg/m³ to 6.3 kg/m³. It is important to realize the temporal and spatial accumulation variation law of continuous erosion in the lower Yellow River in order to estimate the erosion potential. [Methods] Through collecting the annual erosion volume data from 2001 to 2024 for different sub-reaches， the temporal and spatial accumulation variation law of continuous erosion in the lower Yellow River is analyzed. Based on the river spatial non-equilibrium sediment transport theory， and combined with the temporal delayed response model of sediment transport capacity adjustment during the processes of erosion and sedimentation of river bed， a temporal and spatial accumulation variation model of continuous erosion volume is proposed， and then is used to simulate the temporal and spatial accumulation variation of continuous erosion in the lower Yellow River and predict the future erosion potential. The model parameter ϕ is calibrated based on the measured spatial accumulation erosion data of 2017， the model parameters K_（0） and β is determined based on the measured temporal accumulation erosion data from 2001 to 2017 of the Hua-Li reach. These calibrated parameters are used to simulate the temporal and spatial accumulation erosion from 2018 to 2024 of the different sub-reaches for model validation and the performance is evaluated using the certainty coefficient and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. [Results] Data analysis results show that the temporal and spatial accumulation variation law of continuous erosion in the lower Yellow River shows a set of different growth curves， and the growth rates present a first fast and then slow down change trend， finally gradually tending towards 0. The simulation results of the temporal and spatial accumulation erosion volume show that the simulated and measured values are in good agreement， the values of the certainty coefficient and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient are 0.98 and 0.99. The sediment transport capacity coefficient K decreased to 0.005 4 kg·s/m⁶ by 2024. The continuous erosion in the lower Yellow River is approaching equilibrium. If further erosion is desired， it is necessary to optimize the water and sediment combination conditions. If the average discharge increases by half to 1 191 m³/s and the sediment concentration decreases by half to 1.98 kg/m³， the erosion potential can increase to 860 million m³. [Conclusion] The high model precision illustrates the rationality of the proposed temporal and spatial accumulation variation model of continuous erosion volume. As a macro accumulation model， the proposed model in this paper is not suitable to simulate different annual erosion volumes of different sub-reaches of the lower Yellow River and the spatial accumulation variation law. But after long term self-adjustment， its macro temporal and spatial accumulation variation law conforms to the model proposed in this paper reflecting the macro fluvial process tend towards equilibrium. In the future， from a micro perspective of the different independent year， how to finely simulate the annual erosion volume of different sub-reach and the complex spatial accumulation variation law in the lower Yellow River is still to be further studied.