Review of the Effects of Integrated Forecasting and Operation of Xin’anjiang Reservoir

WANG Shu-ying, LIU Fu-yao, WU Xiu-guang, PAN Shuang, WANG Hao

Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (7) : 28-36.

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Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (7) : 28-36. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20250908
Water Resources

Review of the Effects of Integrated Forecasting and Operation of Xin’anjiang Reservoir

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Abstract

[Objective] In 2024, the Xin’anjiang Reservoir experienced the largest inflow flood since its construction due to persistent and intense rainfall during the Meiyu season. The return periods of the maximum 5-day and 7-day inflow volumes both reached the 50-year level. This study conducts a post-event assessment based on the actual forecasting and operation process. [Methods] Multi-source and multi-model quantitative precipitation forecasts were assimilated to analyze the rainfall intensity characteristics of typical historical floods. Representative forecast rainfall time series were optimized under unfavorable, moderate, and favorable conditions with phased temporal distribution, extending forecast lead time while reducing rainfall uncertainty. The Xin’anjiang three-component runoff generation framework was applied to construct a basin-wide flood forecasting model, coupled with reservoir operation rules to form an integrated forecasting-operation modeling scheme. Hourly rolling forecasts were performed based on real-time rainfall and operational information. Considering multiple objectives such as controlling maximum reservoir level, ensuring downstream safety discharge, and managing flood-peak staggering with the mainstream, iterative forward-and-reverse scenario simulations generated 215 forecast scenarios, providing precise support for ten rounds of gate operation decisions. [Results] A comparative assessment of the two major floods in 2024 and 2020 shows that although the 2024 event involved larger rainfall and greater inflow volume, the forecasting was more refined, the regulation was earlier and more proactive, and the peak staggering with the Lan River was more precise. This demonstrates that the integrated forecasting-operation model can effectively support multi-objective risk control, achieving the systemic goal of “zero major disaster and zero casualty”. [Conclusion] The full-process summary highlights that dynamic and accurate forecasting is the key to scientific operation, comparative scenario analysis supports refined decision-making, and the principle of “early action, rapid response, and incremental adjustment” is more conducive to basin-wide flood risk reduction.

Key words

flood forecasting / integrated forecasting-operation / peak shaving / risk management / Xin’anjiang Reservoir

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WANG Shu-ying , LIU Fu-yao , WU Xiu-guang , et al . Review of the Effects of Integrated Forecasting and Operation of Xin’anjiang Reservoir[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2026, 43(7): 28-36 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20250908

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