Integrated Water Resource-Environment-Ecosystem (WRE) Approach to Evaluating Aquatic Ecological Health in Agricultural-Intensive Regions of Huaibei Plain

ZOU Zhi-ke, GU Qiong-qiong, LI Ya-long, WANG Long, WANG Bang-wen, LEI Shu-yuan

Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (10) : 68-77.

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Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (10) : 68-77. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20250839
Water Environment and Water Ecology

Integrated Water Resource-Environment-Ecosystem (WRE) Approach to Evaluating Aquatic Ecological Health in Agricultural-Intensive Regions of Huaibei Plain

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Abstract

[Objective] Taking the Chezhegou basin in the intensively agricultural Huaibei Plain as a case study, this research scientifically evaluates the water ecological health from the perspective of ecosystem integrity, considering the unique watershed characteristics of agricultural intensive areas. This study aims to provide practical technical support for the ecological restoration of lake-like rivers in similar regions, and offer a scientific basis for regional water ecological security and sustainable management. [Methods] An evaluation framework for aquatic ecology in agricultural-intensive area was constructed in consideration of water resources, water environment, and water ecology (WRE). Seven key indicators were selected using principal component analysis (PCA, cumulative variance explanation rate >97%) and entropy weight method, considering data accessibility, indicator frequency (≥0.05), and alignment with national standards. The final indicators included: water resource utilization rate, water exchange cycle, comprehensive trophic level index, phytoplankton diversity index, aquatic plant coverage, phytoplankton density, and natural riparian ratio. Statistical analyses (ANOVA, correlation analysis) were also performed. [Results] (1) The Chezhegou basin exhibited distinct lake-type river features: water exchange cycles ranged from 110 to 179 days (mean 119 days) due to low slope (0.2‰), dam interception, and tributary backwater, forming a “semi-stagnant water” state. Water resource utilization rate averaged 43%, reflecting high reliance on agricultural irrigation. Water level (mean 26.40 m) was positively correlated with rainfall (r=0.78, p<0.01) but showed significant lag effects (4-28 hours, mean 12.6 hours) and asynchronous responses to rainfall intensity, attributed to artificial dam regulation. (2) Physicochemical parameters showed significant spatiotemporal variability: TN (0.40-9.51 mg/L, mean 2.52 mg/L), TP (0.002-1.46 mg/L, mean 0.137 mg/L), CODMn (1.2-17.8 mg/L, mean 4.86 mg/L), and Chl-a (10.7-23.4 μg/L, mean 18.3 μg/L) fluctuated seasonally, with higher values in the wet season (except TN). Spatially, Chl-a, TP, and CODMn were significantly higher in the midstream than upstream and downstream. The TLI ranged from 50 to 60 (mild eutrophication), with midstream points reaching moderate eutrophication (TLI=62.3-65.1) in June-July 2023. (3) Eight aquatic plant species were identified, with emergent plants (e.g., Phragmites australis) accounting for 50%. Phytoplankton included 7 phyla and 71 species, dominated by Chlorophyta (46.48%) and Bacillariophyta (22.54%). Phytoplankton density averaged 721.45×104 ind./L, and the Shannon index ranged from 1.86 to 2.213 (mean 1.92), indicating low biodiversity. Chlorophyta abundance was positively correlated with TN (r=0.68, p<0.01) and TP (r=0.72, p<0.01), reflecting eutrophication-driven community succession. (4) The health assessment results showed that the overall water ecological health score averaged 58.22, classified as Grade III (Moderate). Seasonally, summer scores (mean 54.42) were significantly lower than spring (60.72), autumn (59.51), and winter (59.01) (p<0.05), driven by higher summer TLI (mean 62.3) and lower phytoplankton diversity. Interannually, scores declined from 58.38 (2022) to 56.17 (2023) and recovered to 60.10 (2024), consistent with eutrophication dynamics. [Conclusions] The results confirm that the Chezhegou basin’s moderate health status is primarily constrained by eutrophication and low biodiversity. The assessment system, with a cumulative variance explanation rate of 97.202%, demonstrates highly scientific rigor and practicality, offering a replicable tool for similar ecosystems. Future research should enhance monitoring of zooplankton and benthic invertebrates to improve food chain representation.

Key words

water resource-environment-ecology / water ecological health evaluation system / agricultural-intensive area / principal component analysis (PCA) / eutrophication

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ZOU Zhi-ke , GU Qiong-qiong , LI Ya-long , et al . Integrated Water Resource-Environment-Ecosystem (WRE) Approach to Evaluating Aquatic Ecological Health in Agricultural-Intensive Regions of Huaibei Plain[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2026, 43(10): 68-77 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20250839

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Abstract
根据1985&mdash;2011年的大气与湖泊观测数据以及CNRM-CM5模式模拟的RCP4.5情景下太湖未来气温变化数据,采用偏最小二乘回归分析及预测方法,分析了年际尺度上气温、水体总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、无机磷(IP)和溶解的硅元素(Si)等因子对太湖叶绿素a(Chl-a)浓度变化的影响,并进一步评估了未来气温变化对Chla浓度的影响。结果表明:1980&mdash;2011年,太湖年平均气温呈显著的增暖趋势,增温速率约为0.73 ℃&middot;10 a<sup>-1</sup>;在1985&mdash;2011年,Chl-a浓度也表现出显著的增加趋势,年增加速率达到0.43 &mu;g&middot;L<sup>-1</sup>;TN和Si的增加趋势较为显著,而TP和IP的增加趋势不十分显著;相关分析及偏最小二乘回归分析均说明,相对于营养物质,气温在调控太湖Chl-a的年际变化过程中发挥着主导作用,而就营养物质而言,TN和Si对年平均Chl-a浓度年际变化的调控作用大于TP和IP;在RCP4.5情景下,太湖未来气温将以0.19 ℃&middot;10 a<sup>-1</sup>的速率增加;当前营养物浓度条件下,太湖浮游植物生物量也将显著增加,Chl-a浓度10年滑动平均值最高达到34.18 &mu;g&middot;L<sup>-1</sup>,发生在2075&mdash;2085年;在将TN浓度消减1/2情况下,未来Chl-a浓度的10年滑动平均值最高为28.91 &mu;g&middot;L<sup>-1</sup>,也出现在2075&mdash;2085年,小于当前营养物质浓度条件下的最小Chl-a浓度值,可以有效缓解未来气候变暖对太湖富营养化的影响。
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<div style="line-height: 150%">Based on observation data of atmosphere and Lake Taihu from 1985 to 2011 and the air temperature data (RCP4.5) of the model CNRM-CM5 output, partial leastsquares regression (PLSR) was used to analyze the annual relationships between chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and air temperature, total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), inorganic phosphorus (IP), dissolved silicon (Si), and to forecast the effect of future climate warming on Chl-a. The results showed that from 1980 to 2011, annual mean air temperature in Lake Taihu had been increasing at a rate of about 0.73 ℃&middot;10 a<sup>-1</sup>. Chl-a concentration also appeared an increasing trend at about 0.43 &mu;g&middot;L<sup>-1</sup> per year from 1985 to 2011. For nutrients, TN and Si had a more significantly increased trend than TP and IP. Relative to nutrients, air temperature was a dominant factor controlling the annual variation of Chl-a concentration according to the correlation analysis and PLSR. Furthermore, the variability of Chl-a concentration more depended on TN and Si than TP and IP. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, the future annual mean air temperature would increase at a rate of 0.19 ℃&middot;10 a<sup>-1</sup> in Lake Taihu. Under current nutrient conditions, the phytoplankton biomass (Chl-a concentration) would also have a significantly increasing tendency. According to the 10-year running average value of Chl-a concentration, the increasing tendency would reach the peak value (34.18 &mu;g&middot;L<sup>-1</sup>) during 2075-2085. If reducing the TN concentration to half of the present value, the peak value of Chl-a would be 28.91 &mu;g&middot;L<sup>-1</sup> during 2075-2085 and would be less than the minimum value of Chl-a concentration in the current conditions, which could mitigate the effect of climate warming on eutrophication.</div><div style="line-height: 150%"></br>&nbsp;</div>
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