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Assessing Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Combined Weighting and System Dynamics: Case Study of Fenhe River Basin
WANG Xiao-qin, LI Shu-lin, WANG Yin-long
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (9) : 28-36.
PDF(1647 KB)
PDF(1647 KB)
Assessing Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Combined Weighting and System Dynamics: Case Study of Fenhe River Basin
[Objective] Due to regional water shortage and the unreasonable exploitation and utilization of water resources in the Fenhe River Basin, the carrying capacity of water resources is facing serious challenges. Most existing studies on water resources evaluation in the entire Fenhe River Basin use static methods and cannot predict future water resources utilization trends or support rational water resources planning. This study establishes a system dynamics model for water resources carrying capacity to overcome the limitations of static assessment methods, the imbalance between subjective and objective weights in the evaluation indicators, and the multiple-equilibrium problem of single game-theory combined weighting, thereby enabling an accurate analysis of the current status of water resources utilization and the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity under different scenarios in the Fenhe River Basin. [Methods] The cooperative game combined weighting-VIKOR comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to assess the water resources carrying capacity of the Fenhe River Basin during historical periods (2013-2023). Through the system dynamics model, four optimization schemes for water resources utilization were proposed, and the water demand and water resources carrying capacity for the future period (2024-2035) were predicted. [Results] (1) The water resources carrying capacity of Fenhe River Basin generally showed an upward trend from 2013 to 2023. Taiyuan City, benefiting from the Yellow River Water Diversion Project and water-saving and groundwater-extraction restriction policies, had relatively abundant water resources and higher carrying capacity than the other four cities. Because of low irrigation and industrial water-use efficiency and excessive groundwater exploitation, the water resources carrying capacity values of the four areas of Jinzhong City, Lüliang City, Linfen City and Yuncheng City were all between 0.19 and 0.45, belonging to the critical overload and overload states. (2) Among the four prediction schemes, the current continuation scheme had relatively high short-term total water demand in the basin, with a prominent contradiction between water supply and demand, and was in a long-term water shortage state. The supply and demand gap of the water resources conservation scheme shrank year by year and reached a balanced state in 2027, changing from critical overload to a relatively strong carrying capacity state. The water demand and supply of the agriculture-priority scheme increased rapidly year by year and reached a balance in 2031, and the scheme entered a relatively strong carrying capacity state. The comprehensive coordinated development scheme balanced economic and ecological development. The supply and demand gap reached equilibrium in 2028, and the carrying capacity of water resources increased rapidly. It was the optimal scheme. [Conclusion] The research results provide theoretical reference for the sustainable utilization and management of water resources in the Fenhe River Basin.
Fenhe River Basin / water resources carrying capacity / game theory / combined weighting / system dynamics
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