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Evaluation of Water Ecological Security in Poyang Lake and Its Key Influencing Factors
ZHANG Yi-yi, SHEN Yu-ying, XU Li-gang, CHENG Jun-xiang, WU Ya-kun, LUAN Hua-long, QU Geng
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11) : 217-226.
PDF(7320 KB)
PDF(7320 KB)
Evaluation of Water Ecological Security in Poyang Lake and Its Key Influencing Factors
[Objectives] Water ecological security assessment serves as a crucial tool for evaluating the safety and sustainability of aquatic ecosystems. However, few studies have combined dimensionality reduction techniques with ensemble machine learning methods to identify key driving factors influencing water ecological security. Accordingly, this study aims to fill this gap by: 1) constructing a comprehensive water ecological security assessment based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) model; 2) quantitatively assessing the evolution characteristics of water ecological safety in Poyang Lake from 2014 to 2022; and 3) systematically analyzing critical factors affecting aquatic ecosystems. It is expected to provide scientific evidence and management recommendations for risk mitigation and ecological restoration in the Poyang Lake, thereby enhancing ecological sustainability. [Methods] First, 29 parameters were established based on the PSR model, encompassing hydrological, water quality, socioeconomic, and ecosystem health indicators. The indicators were normalized, and the expected values, thresholds, and indicator weights were determined to explore the interactions among human pressure, environmental state variables, and ecological responses. Next, comprehensive evaluation scores were calculated annually (2014-2022), enabling a longitudinal assessment of ecological safety levels. To disentangle the complex influence of multiple variables and reduce information redundancy, principal component analysis (PCA) was employed to identify the latent structures underlying the indicator set. Finally, random forest, a robust non-parametric ensemble learning technique, was used to rank variable importance and elucidate nonlinear contributions of key factors. [Results] (1) The comprehensive water ecological security scores revealed that from 2014 to 2022, Poyang Lake generally maintained a state from “moderate” to “relatively safe”, with basic stability but a slight downward trend in its ecosystem, particularly in the years marked by intensified human activities and altered hydrological conditions. (2) The PCA results demonstrated the effectiveness of dimensionality reduction and highlighted the indicator correlations, with the first few components strongly associated with mean annual water level, eutrophication status, and socioeconomic development. (3) The RF model revealed a consistent and interpretable ranking of variable importance, identifying the top five factors influencing the water ecological security as: mean annual water level, per capita GDP, urban wastewater discharge, eutrophication status, water quality compliance rate. [Conclusion] Stable mean annual water levels are foundational to ecological security. Economic activities, while beneficial for development, must be coupled with strict pollution control to prevent further ecological degradation. Continuous eutrophication monitoring and adaptive response strategies are essential. Infrastructure for pollution control should be strengthened, with a particular focus on upstream cities and agricultural areas. Ecological restoration projects should be advanced, with emphasis on rehabilitating degraded wetlands and tributaries. These findings offer scientific evidence and decision-making support for improving the water ecological security of Poyang Lake and can be extended to assess similar large freshwater lake systems facing comparable challenges.
Poyang Lake / PSR model / water ecological security / influencing factor
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Currently, wetland stability is under threat due to the joint effects of global climate change and human activity, especially in lakes. Hence, it is necessary to evaluate the health status of wetland ecosystems such as lakes, identify the variables causing the wetland degradation and work to protect the wetlands from the identified variables in the future. Based on fourteen high-resolution autumn remote sensing images from 1989–2013, the classification characteristics and spatial distribution patterns of wetland landscapes in Poyang Lake were studied through quantitative interpretation technology. An established health assessment index system named the EHCI (Ecological Health Comprehensive Index) was used to assess the health status of Poyang Lake. Additionally, the relationship between water regime and health status of wetland landscape distribution of Poyang Lake were investigated by multivariate statistical analysis. The results demonstrated: (1) The total area of three first level (or six second level) types of wetland landscapes showed a stable status, which was long-term maintaining at about 3026 km2 from 1989–2013. (2) The water area shows a downward trend, while the areas of vegetation and land-water transition zone show upward trends. (3) The proposed EHCI of the Poyang Lake wetland presented a downward trend. According to the EHCI results from 1989–2013, the health status of Poyang Lake wetland was healthy for two years, unhealthy for four years and sub-healthy for eight years. (4) The water level fluctuation greatly affected the EHCI, and the effect became greater as the water level increased. These results contribute to the understanding of specific effects of hydrological process on the health status of the Poyang Lake wetland. In addition they provide a scientific reference for the maintenance of stable ecosystem functions of the seasonal freshwater lake. These results contribute to the understanding of specific effects of hydrological process on the health status of the Poyang Lake. In addition they provide a scientific reference for the maintenance of stable ecosystem functions of the seasonal freshwater lake.
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