Dynamic Evaluation and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River Basin

WEI Yan-qi, YANG Dao-xun, LIU Hua-qi, LI Hai-chao, CHEN Hui, SHI Hao-ran

Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (7) : 46-55.

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Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (7) : 46-55. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20250420
Water Resources

Dynamic Evaluation and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River Basin

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Abstract

[Objective] The urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of Yangtze River Basin is a key region in the “Rise of Central China” strategy. Dense population and high-level industrialization have led to severe contradictions between water supply and demand. By calculating the connection values of regional water resources carrying capacity （WRCC）， this research aims to provide scientific references and empirical support for optimizing regional water resource allocation， promoting sustainable socioeconomic development， and informing policy practices for high-quality water conservancy development within the Yangtze River Economic Belt. [Methods] Based on multi-year statistical data from Hubei， Hunan， and Jiangxi provinces， we applied the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） to calculate indicator weights， set pair analysis （SPA） to evaluate the WRCC by quantifying the connection numbers between the system and carrying grades， and the standard deviational ellipse （SDE） method to analyze the spatial distribution pattern and evolution trajectory of WRCC. [Results] （1） The WRCC of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of Yangtze River were increasing， with the average connection number increasing by 0.20； （2） Water allocation and pollution control have been optimized， with connection numbers for water use per GDP unit and urban sewage treatment rate increasing by more than 0.70； （3） Northern cities exhibit lower WRCC， and the SDE centroid has shifted from the east to the northwest， indicating improved spatial balance in WRCC. [Conclusions] Although the WRCC of the study region has been continuously improving， there are still spatial differences. It is necessary to strengthen water resources regulation and control capabilities in the high-consumption industrial areas and high-population density areas in the northern part of the urban agglomeration. The findings provide scientific evidence and decision-making support for water resource optimization and regional coordinated management in the middle Yangtze River region.

Key words

WRCC / set pair analysis / standard deviational ellipse / urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of Yangtze River Basin

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WEI Yan-qi , YANG Dao-xun , LIU Hua-qi , et al . Dynamic Evaluation and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River Basin[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2026, 43(7): 46-55 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20250420

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