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Impact of Hydrological Alteration on Water Level Correlation at Representative Stations of Poyang Lake
XU Bin, YANG Han, HE Shan
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11) : 193-198.
PDF(5938 KB)
PDF(5938 KB)
Impact of Hydrological Alteration on Water Level Correlation at Representative Stations of Poyang Lake
[Objective] The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of hydrological alteration on water level. [Methods] The Hydrological Alteration Diagnosis System was first used to identify the types of hydrological alteration. Then, based on the identified alteration types, change points in the water level series were detected.The water level series was divided into two periods using the earliest and latest change points as boundaries: the period before the earliest change point, representing natural conditions unaffected by changing environments, and the period after the latest change point, representing current conditions affected by changing environments. The water level series under natural and current conditions, which met the consistency requirements, could be used to analyze water level changes and predict trends. Using measured water level data as the evaluation standard, the analysis results incorporating hydrological alteration were compared with those ignoring hydrological alteration to quantitatively evaluate the deviations and shortcomings of conventional analytical methods. [Results] Using the monthly water level series from key stations (Xingzi and Hukou) in Poyang Lake as the research object, it was found that when hydrological alteration was considered, the fitting efficiency coefficients of the water level series from January to April at both stations were generally higher than those without considering hydrological alteration. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the water level at Xingzi station was improved. Greater differences in the types of hydrological alteration led to more significant improvements in prediction accuracy. [Conclusion] Compared to the length of the time series, hydrological alteration has a greater effect on improving the accuracy of water level prediction. This finding is not consistent with the results of some previous studies, indicating that further in-depth research is necessary. Therefore, hydrological alteration should be considered during model training to improve prediction accuracy.
hydrological alteration / hydrological prediction / inconsistency / linear correlation analysis / Poyang Lake
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