PDF(2247 KB)
Retrospective Analysis and Countermeasures of High Water Levels in Suzhou River During Typhoon Kong-Rey
QIAN Zhen
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12) : 65-74.
PDF(2247 KB)
PDF(2247 KB)
Retrospective Analysis and Countermeasures of High Water Levels in Suzhou River During Typhoon Kong-Rey
[Objective] During the impact of Typhoon Kong-Rey on Shanghai in the autumn of 2024, the Suzhou River reached a new historical high water level. To deeply analyze the causes of this high water level event, assess the response capacity of the existing flood control and drainage system, and explore optimized scheduling and engineering measures, this study systematically reviews the hydrological process of the high water level in the Suzhou River during Typhoon Kong-Rey and proposes practical countermeasures. It aims to provide insights and a scientific basis for optimizing flood control scheduling and urban flood control and drainage system in Shanghai, while also serving as a reference for other cities facing similar challenges. [Methods] A method combining field investigation and numerical simulation was adopted, and data on rainfall, water level, tidal level, and hydraulic facility scheduling during Typhoon Kong-Rey were collected. Considering factors such as rainfall-runoff, river network hydrodynamics, and pump-gate scheduling, a hydrodynamic model for the tidal river network was constructed to simulate the flow dynamics and water level changes in the Suzhou River and its adjacent river network. The average coefficient of determination for water level simulations reached 0.96. On this basis, a knowledge graph was utilized to identify the causes of the high water level in the Suzhou River. Three types of countermeasures were proposed: emergency discharge restriction on both banks, emergency diversion in the river network, and optimized planning for increased drainage. Different scheduling schemes were set up for simulation and comparison to quantitatively evaluate their effectiveness in reducing high water levels and their risk impacts. [Results] Simulations showed that the high water level in the Suzhou River during Typhoon Kong-Rey was primarily caused by the combined effects of concentrated rainfall in the middle and lower reaches, substantial inflow of floodwater from both banks, and the backwater effect from the high tidal level of the Huangpu River. Simulations of different countermeasures revealed the following results. (1) Emergency discharge restriction on both banks: Short-term discharge restriction in the Jiabaobei and Dianbei areas could reduce the highest water levels along the Suzhou River by 0.16-0.29 m, lowering the highest water level at Beixinjing to below 4.25 m. (2) Emergency diversion in the river network: Combining discharge restriction in Jiabaobei and Dianbei areas with emergency diversion via the Xinchapu River could maintain the highest water level along the entire Suzhou River below 4.20 m, diverting approximately 1.02 million m3 of floodwater, with minimal impact on flood control on both banks. (3) Optimized planning for increased drainage: After the implementation of the planned Suzhou River estuary pump station and Wenzaobang east pump station, the reduction in the highest water level along the Suzhou River could reach 0.40-0.64 m, while also enhancing the drainage capacity of the Jiabaobei area and significantly improving regional flood control resilience. [Conclusion] Existing engineering system for the Suzhou River has shortcomings under extreme events. Scientific scheduling and engineering optimization can effectively reduce the risk of high water levels. It is recommended to prioritize the “Jiabaobei + Dianbei discharge restriction + Xinchapu diversion” as the emergency scheduling scheme, and to accelerate the construction of the Suzhou River estuary pump station and the Wenzaobang east pump station, thereby establishing a multi-level flood control and drainage system of “restriction-diversion-expansion”. This study provides replicable and scalable scheduling experience and engineering approaches for Shanghai to cope with similar extreme typhoon events, and also offers important references for other plain cities with tidal river networks.
urban flooding / high water levels / disaster review / Suzhou River
| [1] |
苑希民, 兰卓青, 王丽娜, 等. 极端天气城市特大暴雨洪涝灾害特征再分析及应对策略[J]. 水利学报, 2024, 55(11): 1298-1308.
(
|
| [2] |
刘家宏, 宋天旭, 梅超, 等. 利比亚德尔纳2023年极端洪水模拟复盘分析[J]. 水利学报, 2024, 55(6):723-734.
(
|
| [3] |
程晓陶, 刘昌军, 李昌志, 等. 变化环境下洪涝风险演变特征与城市韧性提升策略[J]. 水利学报, 2022, 53(7):757-768,778.
(
|
| [4] |
陈文龙, 夏军. 广州“5·22”城市洪涝成因及对策[J]. 中国水利, 2020(13):4-7.
(
|
| [5] |
刘家宏, 梅超, 王佳, 等. 北京市门头沟流域“23·7”特大暴雨洪水过程分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2023, 33(9):50-55.
(
|
| [6] |
刘晓涛. 总体国家安全观视域下上海水旱灾害防御工作思考[J]. 中国水利, 2023(9):40-43.
(
|
| [7] |
王璐阳, 张敏, 温家洪, 等. 上海复合极端风暴洪水淹没模拟[J]. 水科学进展, 2019, 30(4):546-555.
(
|
| [8] |
陈满荣, 王少平. 上海城市风暴潮灾害及其预测[J]. 灾害学, 2000(3):27-30.
(
|
| [9] |
沙治银. 上海市防御202106号台风“烟花”的过程及思考[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32(4):52-54.
(
|
| [10] |
丁国川. 上海西部地区“烟花”台风期间高水位成因分析与对策[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2024, 41(11):95-101.
为应对上海西部地区在极端天气时面临的严峻洪涝挑战,提出有效的水位调控策略,选取“烟花”台风期间青松片为研究对象,综合分析实际雨情与工况数据,包括降雨、片内圩外河道水位、二级圩区水位、片外河道水位过程等,提出二级圩区河湖超蓄和控制圩区雨峰过后排水2种策略,运用数字化地形分析与除涝数值模拟技术,评估对缓解高水位的有效性。研究发现,实施策略能大幅度增强蓄滞能力,二级圩区河湖超蓄措施可增加圩区蓄滞能力1 169.8万m<sup>3</sup>,控制圩区雨峰过后排水措施可增加圩区蓄滞能力245.9万m<sup>3</sup>,可降低片内圩外河道水位30 cm左右,有效缓解高水位。研究不仅验证了策略的有效性,而且在现有防洪排涝体系上增添了新的调控手段,为城市在面临重大水情挑战时提供了科学的调度决策依据,对于构建更加韧性的水管理体系、保障城市安全运行具有重要的实践价值与理论贡献。
(
|
| [11] |
钱真, 谭琼, 贾卫红. 城市雨洪综合模拟方法及应用[J]. 水利水电科技进展, 2015, 35(6):57-61.
(
|
| [12 ] |
钱真, 贾卫红. 基于GIS的感潮地区城市区域除涝能力评估[J]. 水电能源科学, 2014, 32(3):85-87.
(
|
| [13] |
高丽莎, 高程程, 汪涛. 基于精细化河网水动力模型的长宁区除涝能力评估[J]. 水资源保护, 2021, 37(5):62-67.
(
|
| [14] |
|
| [15] |
|
| [16] |
王雨潇, 刘波, 王文鹏, 等. 基于HEC-HMS模型的三峡区间洪水模拟[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2024, 41(6):76-83.
三峡区间面积在长江上游的流域面积占比5.6%,但在三峡入库洪水组成中,区间形成的洪水占比可达10%以上,可见区间暴雨洪水是水库防洪安全必须考量的重要因素。采用2007—2011年三峡入库流量,上游边界寸滩和武隆站实测流量资料,建立了基于HEC-HMS的三峡区间洪水模拟模型,用于分析区间暴雨洪水与入库洪水的关系。根据入库洪水来源组成分析和资料特点,提出分类调参、分期检验的区间洪水建模方案:对以上游来水为主型洪水,率定汇流参数;对区间降水贡献较大型洪水,率定产流参数;对2012年以后的模拟洪水过程,以三峡水库运行实录发布的洪水过程线为比对基准。结果表明:模型精度良好,率定期和验证期洪峰流量相对误差在±20%以内,峰现时间误差<3 h;经与长江三峡工程运行实录比对,模型适用于模拟2012年后的三峡入库洪水过程。以20160626场次洪水为典型,分析该场区间洪水对入库洪水的峰值贡献率达27.2%,使得峰现时间提前16 h。研究成果可用于三峡区间洪水的影响研究,也可作为区间流域洪水模拟模型建模方案的技术参考。
(
|
| [17] |
魏乾坤, 刘曙光, 钟桂辉, 等. 平原感潮河网地区河道洪水对村镇内涝的影响[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2019, 36(3):46-52.
随着平原感潮河网地区城市化快速发展,下垫面变化落后导致河道泄洪能力不足,河道洪水水位明显上涨,村镇内涝灾害日益频繁,已明显制约当地经济发展。在分析平原感潮河网地区村镇内涝影响因素基础上,以典型村镇为例,通过数值模拟方法分析该地区河道洪水对村镇内涝影响。结果显示50 a一遇与100 a一遇河道洪水分别导致村镇排涝水量减少25.17%,55.24%,排涝水量减少对村镇内部河流洪水过程的影响明显。降雨量增大加剧了排涝水量减少对村镇内涝淹没面积扩大的影响。河道洪水可导致村镇内涝淹没面积扩大22%,加剧了村镇内涝灾情。此研究成果可为该地区村镇内涝风险管理提供参考。
(
|
| [18] |
|
| [19] |
|
| [20] |
|
| [21] |
李学峰, 谭琼, 钱真. 上海市城市内涝风险分析与评估[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2024, 34(6):26-32.
(
|
| [22] |
徐贵泉, 陈庆江, 陈长太. 苏州河沿线设计高水位[J]. 水利水电科技进展, 2012, 32(6):38-41.
(
|
| [23] |
朱桂娥, 孙永林, 陈佳蕾. 平原河网地区节制闸规模确定方法研究——以上海市苏州河西闸为例[J]. 水利水电快报, 2023, 44(7):63-66,75.
(
|
| [24] |
程文辉, 王船海, 朱琰. 太湖流域模型[M]. 南京: 河海大学出版社, 2006.
(
|
| [25] |
钱真, 孔令婷, 陈长太, 等. 城市平原感潮河网地区涉河工程防洪影响计算方法研究[J]. 水利规划与设计, 2022(9):41-45.
(
|
| [26] |
史军, 崔林丽, 顾宇丹, 等. 气候变化背景下复合极端事件研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2023, 38(8):771-779.
复合极端事件是导致社会或环境风险的多种驱动因子和/或致灾因子的组合,对人类社会和生态系统造成的影响往往比单个极端事件更严重、更具破坏性。首先简要论述了复合极端事件的定义和内涵,包括先决条件事件、多变量事件、时间复合事件以及空间复合事件;然后详细综述了复合极端事件的时空演变特征、复合极端事件变化的影响因素和未来复合极端事件情景预估3个方面的研究进展;最后针对目前研究中面临的问题,提出今后研究关注的重点,包括复合极端事件的变量/指标选取及阈值确定、复合极端事件因子间依赖关系及相互作用、复合极端事件模拟性能评估和未来情景预估以及复合极端事件影响的动态过程及致灾机制。
(
Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the safety of both natural and built environments. Compound extreme events are combinations of multiple climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risks, and their impacts on human society and natural ecosystems are often more serious and destructive than those of a single extreme event. Understanding the changes in compound extreme events is important for adaptation, mitigation strategies, and disaster risk management. Here, the definitions and connotations of compound extreme events are briefly discussed, including preconditioned, multivariate, temporal, and spatial compounding events. Subsequently, the progress in compound extreme event research is discussed in terms of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, influencing factors, and future scenario projections. Given the problems in current research, we suggest that future studies should focus on studying compound extreme events regarding variable/index selection and threshold determination, dependence and interaction analysis among drivers and/or hazards, simulation performance evaluation and future projections, and their dynamic processes and disaster-causing mechanisms. Compound extreme events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warming world, and many regions are projected to experience an increase in the probability of compound events with greater global warming. Therefore, we must improve our understanding of the causes and drivers of compound and cascade events. |
| [27] |
|
| [28] |
The variation of the tropical cyclone (TC) season in the western North Pacific (WNP) was analyzed based on the percentiles of annual TC formation dates. The results show that the length of the TC season is highly modulated by the TC season’s start rather than its end. The start of the TC season in the WNP has large interannual variation that is closely associated with the variation of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean (IO) and the central-eastern Pacific (CEP). When the SSTs of the IO and CEP are warm (cold) in the preceding winter, anomalous high (low) pressure and anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation are induced around the WNP TC basin the following spring, resulting in a late (early) start of the TC season. These results suggest that a strong El Niño in the preceding winter significantly delays the TC season start in the following year.
|
| [29] |
王磊, 张建频, 廖青桃, 等. 苏州河深层排水调蓄管道系统工程规划研究[J]. 中国给水排水, 2016, 32(15):139-142.
(
|
| [30] |
韦浩, 俞汇, 李琪, 等. 上海市苏州河高水位成因分析及对策研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2024, 34(2):63-67.
(
|
| [31] |
季永兴. 黄浦江河口建闸研究40年回顾与展望[J]. 水利水电科技进展, 2023, 43(5):1-9,87.
(
|
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |