[Objective] Developing new quality productive forces of water conservancy is an inevitable direction for promoting high-quality development of the water conservancy sector at present, and how to cultivate such forces according to local conditions has become a key issue faced by both the theoretical community and practical departments. Although related studies have continued to expand, there remain shortcomings in the water conservancy field, including insufficient systematic attention to differences in water resource endowment and an inadequate understanding of the formation mechanisms of new quality productive forces of water conservancy. Therefore, it is urgently necessary to carry out normative research focusing on the theoretical logic and practical pathways of development tailored to local conditions. [Methods] This study was based on resource endowment theory, comparative advantage theory, and new structural economics, and constructed an analytical framework for developing new quality productive forces of water conservancy according to local conditions. Starting from water factor endowments and functional attributes, the key roles of innovative allocation of water-related factors, upgrading of water-related industries, and the water-related science and technology talent system were systematically examined in promoting the development of new quality productive forces of water conservancy. Furthermore, by integrating regional water resource characteristics, the study identified five core dimensions—water science and technology, resource allocation, ecological value, industrial upgrading, and disaster prevention and control—and established a system of regionally differentiated development pathways. [Results] The results showed that developing new quality productive forces of water conservancy according to local conditions was a dynamic evolutionary process that started from water factor endowments and regional differences, progressed through the formation of comparative advantages and coordinated regional division of labor, and ultimately led to a spiral improvement of comprehensive capabilities. This development relied on three key driving forces: innovative allocation of water-related factors, which promoted the overall optimization of water engineering systems, water ecological patterns, and water resource utilization structures; in-depth development and transformational upgrading of water-related industries expanded the water economic value chain and strengthened the industrial foundation of the water conservancy modernization system; and improvements in the water-related scientific and technological innovation and talent cultivation system provided sustained momentum for the modernization of water conservancy. The study further identified five major manifestations of new quality productive forces of water conservancy from the perspective of the multiple values of water factors: water science and technology reflected innovation in governance capacity, resource allocation reflected improvements in water resource efficiency, ecological value reflected ecosystem improvement and enhanced services, industrial upgrading reflected industrial structure reshaping and value chain extension, and disaster prevention and control reflected enhanced regional water security resilience. These dimensions were interrelated and jointly constituted a diversified structural system of new quality productive forces of water conservancy. [Conclusion] Based on the characteristics of water factor endowments in different regions, this study proposes five representative types of differentiated development pathways. The northwestern arid regions are suited to adopt a “technology-based water compensation” pathway, improving water resource utilization efficiency through technological innovation. North China is suited to follow an “institutional adjustment” pathway, alleviating the contradiction between water supply and demand through institutional provision. Southwest China is suited to adopt an “ecological transformation” pathway, converting rich water ecological advantages into development momentum. The southeastern coastal regions are suitable for an “integrated water economy” pathway, strengthening the linkage between the water economy and regional industries. Typical high-risk regions need to adopt a “resilience enhancement” pathway, reinforcing flood control, disaster reduction, and comprehensive risk governance. These pathways reflect the heterogeneity of the formation mechanisms of new quality productive forces of water conservancy across regions and demonstrate the central role of the principle of adapting measures to local conditions in the modernization of water conservancy. Overall, developing new quality productive forces of water conservancy according to local conditions must be based on differences in water factor endowments and regional functions, forming an advantage-oriented and endogenous driving system, and achieving coordinated improvement in water science and technology, resource allocation, ecological value, industrial development, and disaster resilience. The results and pathway system of this study provide important theoretical foundations and practical guidance for regions to construct differentiated water conservancy development models.