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Impacts of El Niño Events on Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly and Flood Risk in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River
LI Xiao-ying, BAO Yi-ming, CHEN Bo-wen, ZHANG Peng-hui
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12) : 41-50.
PDF(4683 KB)
PDF(4683 KB)
Impacts of El Niño Events on Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly and Flood Risk in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River
[Objective] This study aims to analyze the changes in water resources in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and to investigate the impact of El Niño events on regional floods. [Methods] GRACE gravity satellite data from 2003 to 2022, released by various research institutions, were used to derive the Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) for the study area. Based on correlation coefficients and cross-correlation analysis, the CSR MASCON TWSA data series exhibiting strong correlations with the indices of both Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events was selected. Wavelet analysis, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, and the Flood Potential Index (FPI) were employed to investigate the influence of the two types of El Niño events on regional TWSA and to analyze their relationship with flood risk in the study area. [Results] The results were as follows: (1) the highest correlation between TWSA and the EP El Niño event was found at a time lag of 6 months, with a correlation coefficient reaching 0.630. TWSA peaks showed a positive response to EP El Niño events, while the response to CP El Niño events was unstable. (2) Cross wavelet transform revealed common resonance periods between TWSA and both types of El Niño events, and the impact of the EP El Niño event on water resource changes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was found to be more significant. The EOF analysis showed that the southern part of the study area was susceptible to the influence of both El Niño types. (3) The spatial distribution of the grid-based Flood Potential Index showed a higher flood risk in the southern part of the study area following the occurrence of both El Niño types. The flood risk corresponding to EP El Niño events was greater, with high-risk areas concentrated at the junction of the Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake sub-basins. In contrast, the flood risk distribution corresponding to CP El Niño events was more dispersed. [Conclusion] The results of this study, based on wavelet analysis, EOF analysis, and the Flood Potential Index, show that flood risk in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is closely related to El Niño events. These findings contribute to the prediction and prevention of floods in the region.
terrestrial water storage / El Niño events / GRACE / wavelet analysis / flood potential index
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Based on the monthly average wind speed and significant wave height of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 from 1979 to 2019, the temporal and spatial characteristics of wind speed and significant wave height were analyzed. The Mann-Kendall test method was used to analyze its inter-annual variation and the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis method was used to study the spatial distribution characteristics. The results showed that: (1) The wind direction of the South Atlantic Ocean rotated counter clock wise with 30°S and 10°W as the center. The areas with high wind speed were mainly controlled by the southeast trade wind belt and the west wind belt, and the low value areas were controlled by the subtropical high and low pressure zone. The wind speed in winter was higher than other seasons, and the wind speed and wind direction distribution throughout the year were related to the seasonal changes of the weather system. (2) There was a strong correlation between wind speed and significant wave height, and both of them were distributed in a zonal ring shape. The overall significant wave height was the largest in winter and smaller in summer. (3) Mann-Kendall test results showed that the inter-annual variation of wind speed and significant wave height both showed an upward trend. The wind speed had abrupt changes around 2006 and 2009, and the significant wave was higher than around 1994 and had abrupt changes. (4) The first mode of EOF of the wind speed showed that the trade wind belt-westerly belt and the subtropical high belt-low pressure belt were distributed in the opposite pattern. The wind speed of the former showed a significant upward trend, and the latter showed a downward trend. The first modal of EOF of the significant wave height showed that the significant wave height variability in the north sea area of 60°S was the positive phase, and the south was the negative phase. The significant wave height in the positive phase region had a significant increasing trend, and the significant wave height in the negative phase region had a significant decreasing trend.
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