PDF(6569 KB)
Research Progress and Prospects on Risk Assessment and Early Warning for Embankment Safety in Estuarine and Coastal Areas
ZHU Yong-hui, LI Meng-yu, LUAN Hua-long, QU Geng, YUAN Yuan, WU Wei-wei, GE Jian-zhong, GUO Jun
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6) : 1-7.
PDF(6569 KB)
PDF(6569 KB)
Research Progress and Prospects on Risk Assessment and Early Warning for Embankment Safety in Estuarine and Coastal Areas
In recent years, under the combined effects of intensified human activities, climate change, and sea level rise, estuarine and coastal areas have faced increasing risks of extreme flood-tide damage, posing a serious threat to the safety of estuarine and coastal embankments. Due to the complex and rapidly changing dynamic conditions, multiple disaster-causing factors, and the abrupt and strongly destructive nature of related processes, research on embankment safety risk assessment and disaster early warning has become increasingly challenging. This represents an interdisciplinary research frontier and hotspot in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation that has attracted global attention. Focusing on international research hotspots in embankment safety risk assessment and early warning and strategic needs for disaster prevention and mitigation at the national level, this study systematically reviews the current status and trends of embankment safety risk assessment and early warning technologies both domestically and internationally. Additionally, it identifies the key scientific and technical challenges that require urgent solutions. Based on the limitations of existing research, this study proposes suggestions and future research directions. The study integrates approaches from multiple disciplines, including estuarine and coastal science, coastal dynamics, river dynamics, hydrology, meteorology, engineering geology, geophysics, information engineering, and computer engineering. By employing field surveys, dynamic monitoring, flume experiments, numerical simulation, machine learning, and theoretical analysis, it clarifies three key relationships driven by the evolution mechanism of the flood-tide disaster chains: the “fluid-structure interaction”, “causal relationship between disaster-causing factors and risk assessment”, and “coordination between habitat safety and dynamic early warning”. From the perspective of hydrometeorological conditions, disaster chain evolution, and fluid-structure interaction, this study reveals the evolution mechanism of flood-tide disaster chains under changing conditions and the response mechanism for embankment disasters. Furthermore, from the perspective of multi-element monitoring and multi-indicator dynamic early warning, the study establishes a comprehensive embankment safety risk assessment system and early warning model for estuarine and coastal areas, with technical applications to enhance the accuracy of disaster forecasting and the resilience of embankment protection. The research findings are expected to improve the safety assurance capabilities in estuarine and coastal areas, significantly enhance early warning of embankment disaster risks, and provide critical scientific and technological support for evidence-based decision-making in disaster prevention and mitigation.
embankment safety of estuarine and coastal areas / compound disaster-causing factor / evolution mechanism of flood-tide disaster chains / response mechanism for embankment disasters / embankment safety risk assessment / early warning for embankment safety
| [1] |
|
| [2] |
|
| [3] |
|
| [4] |
|
| [5] |
Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.
|
| [6] |
Executive Office of the President,United States. Assistant to the President for Homeland Security,Counterterrorism. The Federal Response to Hurricane Katrina: Lessons Learned[M]. Washington: Government Printing Office, 2006.
|
| [7] |
|
| [8] |
吕丽莉, 史培军. 中美应对巨灾功能体系比较: 以2008年南方雨雪冰冻灾害与2005年卡特里娜飓风应对为例[J]. 灾害学, 2014, 29(3): 206-213.
(
|
| [9] |
|
| [10] |
雷鸣. 孟加拉国的气候灾害及其治理[J]. 南亚研究季刊, 2012(4): 92-97, 6.
(
|
| [11] |
彭敏瑞, 赵璞. 美国应对飓风“哈维” 及对我国防台风工作的启示[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2017, 27(6):131-133.
(
|
| [12] |
|
| [13] |
王然, 连芳, 余瀚, 等. 基于孕灾环境的全球台风灾害链分类与区域特征分析[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(5): 836-850.
在全球气候变化与经济一体化的背景下,台风引发的次生灾害构成灾害链,加剧人口、经济等多方面的损失。以2000-2010年案例数据为基础,依据台风所经过区域的孕灾环境特性,提出了全球台风灾害链分类体系,并统计得出类型与强度的区域特征：在西北太平洋,主要发生于山地（丘陵）区（占34.4%）,强度为3.1;在南太平洋,主要发生于岛屿区（占59.2%）,强度为2.6~3.0;在北印度洋,主要发生于河口海岸区（占35.8%）,强度为0.7~0.9;在南印度洋,主要发生于平原区（占31%）,强度为2.6;在北大西洋与东北太平洋,主要发生于平原海岸区（分别占24.7%与31.2%）,强度分别为2.0~2.3和2.3。研究结果可为台风灾害链自动识别、动态模拟与预测提供理论基础,用以支持区域防灾减灾建设与应急响应策略制定。
(
|
| [14] |
金德生, 师长兴, 陈浩, 等. 人为动力泥沙灾害类型及其特征初步研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2000, 19(4): 317-326.
(
The man induced sediment disaster is identified as a kind of processes for land surface material to advance gradually or to surpass threshold erosion, transportation and accumulation by man’s activities. It possesses special attributes in sociology and disaster science. In accordance with the form of man’s activities, geomorphologic lacation behavior and particular, the man induced sediment disaster can be divided into 4 types: the drainage network, slope and gully, channel and plain estuary coastline. Each type includes 5 subtypes, e.g. erosion, transportation, accumulation, complexity and correlation. There are more than 54 kinds of man made sediment disasters, for example, destroying forest for farming, constructing highway and road, too much small and middle coal mining, cave dwelling, discarded earth and stone into channel sand gullies, excavated beyond normal limit of sand in river bed, desertification of cultivated lands, soil salinization, much more sedimentation above a dam and erosion below one after reservoir building, transporting water from one drainage basin to another one, etc..\;According to combination of man’s activities, geomorphology, and sediment mechanics with disaster science, the man induced sediment disaster is characterized by such properties as (1) accelerating tendency with geographical zonation, (2) sharply changing with human environment alvibration, (3) non order under blind action without special technically training, and (4) complexity and non linear figure, etc. One of the important reasons lead to man induced sediment disaster is the human environment vibration. If it is stable and people have high training, the man induced sediment disaster should be reduced, and vise versa. Therefore, it could be controlled only as through strengthening sediment management, correctly executing the water soil conservation law, and rising people’s understanding of environmental protection by education.
|
| [15] |
蔡榕硕, 刘克修, 谭红建. 气候变化对中国海洋和海岸带的影响、风险与适应对策[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2020, 30(9): 1-8.
(
|
| [16] |
丁平兴. 气候变化影响下我国典型海岸带演变趋势与脆弱性评估[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2016.
(
|
| [17] |
|
| [18] |
凡姚申, 窦身堂, 裴洪杨, 等. 大河三角洲侵蚀灾害与应对策略研究进展[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2022, 31(2): 12-25.
(
|
| [19] |
王凯, 侯一筠, 冯兴如, 等. 福建沿海浪潮耦合漫堤风险评估: 以台风天兔为例[J]. 海洋与湖沼, 2020, 51(1):51-58.
(
|
| [20] |
黄婉茹, 郭敬, 谭骏, 等. 风暴潮灾害承灾体风险预警技术研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2023, 32(4): 85-93.
(
|
| [21] |
方佳毅, 史培军. 全球气候变化背景下海岸洪水灾害风险评估研究进展与展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(5): 625-636.
全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升以及高潮位和风暴潮引起的极值水位导致的海岸洪水对沿海社会经济和自然环境造成巨大影响,已是国内外关注的重点。论文梳理了广义和狭义海岸洪水的定义和要素,重点阐述了狭义海岸洪水的组成部分,从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体以及风险评估方法与模型3个方面,系统总结了相关研究方法与研究成果的主要进展,以及存在的主要问题,并透视了未来拟加强的研究方向。建议加强沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的研究,包括全球气候变化下多致灾因子耦合危险性和不确定性研究,沿海关键地区和关键暴露(关键基础设施)的风险评估研究,全球气候变化风险适应与减缓性措施的成本效益评价研究,提高沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的韧性研究,以及建立多学科间的基础数据共享机制,采用交叉学科手段以便更综合、系统、动态研究海岸带问题,保障沿海地区开展全球气候变化下风险评估的需要。
(
The sea level rise under global climate change and coastal floods caused by extreme sea levels due to the high tide levels and storm surges have huge impacts on coastal society, economy, and natural environment. It has drawn great attention from global scientific researchers. This study examines the definitions and elements of coastal flooding in the general and narrow senses, and mainly focuses on the components of coastal flooding in the narrow sense. Based on the natural disaster system theory, the review systematically summarizes the progress of coastal flood research in China, then discusses existing problems in present studies and future research directions with regard to this issue. It is proposed that future studies need to strengthen research on adapting to climate change in coastal areas, including studies on the risk of multi-hazards and uncertainties of hazard impacts under climate change, risk assessment of key exposure (critical infrastructure) in coastal hotspots, and cost-benefit analysis of adaptation and mitigation measures in coastal areas. Efforts to improve the resilience of coastal areas under climate change should be given more attention. The research community also should establish the mechanism of data sharing among disciplines to meet the needs of future risk assessments, so that coastal issues can be more comprehensively, systematically, and dynamically studied. |
| [22] |
|
| [23] |
|
| [24] |
|
| [25] |
|
| [26] |
唐亦汉, 陈晓宏, 邓攀攀. 气候变化下珠江三角洲网河区洪潮耦合高水位的集中期特征及变异规律[J]. 水文, 2017, 37(3): 42-47.
(
|
| [27] |
楼亚颖. 长江口开敞型潮滩动力地貌过程研究[D]. 上海: 华东师范大学, 2022.
(
|
| [28] |
袁菲, 胡晓张, 喻丰华, 等. 珠江河口水沙控导关键问题研究与思考[J]. 中国水利, 2025(6): 38-42.
(
|
| [29] |
|
| [30] |
|
| [31] |
丁家怡, 蔡伟, 周建方. 基于随机力学理论的堤防安全分析方法综述[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2019, 36(10): 66-72, 78.
近年来,基于随机力学理论的堤防安全分析方法已经得到了深入的研究和广泛的应用,但是目前仍然缺少对该方法系统性的总结说明。为对基于随机力学理论的堤防安全分析方法的主要内容及工程应用进行综述,介绍了3种堤防典型失事模式,分析了堤防安全分析中应该考虑的风险因素,并系统整理了风险因素的不确定性和相关性;总结了基于随机力学理论的各种常用的堤防安全分析方法,详述了其在3种堤防典型失事模式中的应用及适用性,重点阐述了基于随机场理论与考虑风险因素互相关性的堤防安全分析方法研究。基于随机力学理论的堤防安全分析方法的主要发展方向是开展基于随机场的有限元法研究,及风险因素间互相关性研究。
(
Despite deep research and broad application of safety analysis methods for levees based on stochastic mechanics in recent decades, systematic summary is still in lack. This paper aims to make a review on the main contents and engineering applications of safety analysis methods for levee based on stochastic mechanics. In the light of three typical failure modes of levees, the risk factors that should be considered in safety analysis are analyzed, and the uncertainty and correlation of risk factors are systematically sorted out. Commonly adopted safety analysis methods based on stochastic mechanics are also summarized with their applications in the aforementioned typical failure modes; the safety analysis methods based on random field theory and intercorrelation of risk factors are expounded with emphasis. It is concluded that the key problems for the development of levee safety analysis method based on stochastic mechanics is the research of finite element method for random field and the intercorrelation among risk factors.
|
| [32] |
邬爱清, 吴庆华. 堤防险情演化机制与隐患快速探测及应急抢险技术装备[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2022, 44(7):1310-1328.
(
|
| [33] |
杨端阳. 基于灰色关联和GA-DBN的长江二元堤防管涌险情预测分析[D]. 郑州: 郑州大学, 2021.
(
|
| [34] |
|
| [35] |
|
| [36] |
|
| [37] |
|
| [38] |
|
| [39] |
|
| [40] |
|
| [41] |
|
| [42] |
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Engineering and Design: Design and Construction of Levees[R]. EM 1110-2-1913. Washington, DC: Department of the Army, 2022.
|
| [43] |
|
| [44] |
邬爱清, 程永辉, 熊勇, 等. 一种堤防快速堵口抢险专用桩网抗冲设备及应用方法:中国,CN110424329B[P]. 2020-12-18.
(
|
| [45] |
陈刚, 肖庆华, 李杰, 等. 一种越浪形态观测方法及系统:中国,CN104180760B[P]. 2017-07-25.
(
|
| [46] |
SL 99—2012, 河工模型试验规程[S]. 北京: 水利水电出版社, 2012.
(SL 99—2012, Test Regulation for Model of River[S]. Beijing: China Water & Power Press, 2012. (in Chinese))
|
| [47] |
GB 50286—2013,堤防工程设计规范[S]. 北京: 中国计划出版社, 2013.
(GB 50286—2013, Design Code for Levee Projects[S] Beijing: China Planning Press, 2013. (in Chinese))
|
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
