Non-probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Gravity Dam Based on Convex Set Scale Factor and the WOA-Kriging Model

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20231174

Abstract

Abstract:

To achieve reliable analysis of gravity dams with limited statistical data, a non-probabilistic reliability assessment method was developed. This method requires only the upper and lower bounds of uncertain parameters. The correlated relationship of these parameters was described using an inscribed ellipsoid model. By introducing a scaling factor, the non-probabilistic reliability calculation model was transformed into a constrained optimization problem. The Kriging model, known for its effectiveness in fitting highly nonlinear functions, was employed to model the functional behavior of gravity dam elements. Additionally, the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) was used for reliability optimization. Case validation confirmed that the non-probabilistic reliability calculation method, based on the convex set scaling factor and the WOA-Kriging model, effectively analyzes the reliability of gravity dams.

Key words: gravity dam, convex set scaling factor, Kriging model, finite element model, non-probabilistic reliability

CLC Number:

TV642.3混凝土重力坝

Cite this article

LIU Yao-lai, WANG Bao-sheng, ZHOU Hong-bo, ZHAO Er-feng, LI Zhang-yin. Non-probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Gravity Dam Based on Convex Set Scale Factor and the WOA-Kriging Model[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, 2025, 42(3): 164-170.

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URL: http://ckyyb.crsri.cn/EN/10.11988/ckyyb.20231174

http://ckyyb.crsri.cn/EN/Y2025/V42/I3/164

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1 Two-dimensional display of external and inscribed ellipsoid model

Fig.2 Flow chart of gravity dam reliability analysis based on convex set scale factor and WOA-Kriging model

Fig.3 Finite element model for gravity dam

Table 1 Deterministic parameters

基岩		扬压力系数 α	上游水位高程H/ m	坝体
密度ρ_r/ (kg·m^-3)	泊松比μ_r	扬压力系数 α	上游水位高程H/ m	密度ρ_c/ (kg·m^-3)		泊松比 μ_c
2 600	0.25	0.5	380	2 400		0.167

Table 1 Deterministic parameters

基岩		扬压力系数 α	上游水位高程H/ m	坝体
密度ρ_r/ (kg·m^-3)	泊松比μ_r	扬压力系数 α	上游水位高程H/ m	密度ρ_c/ (kg·m^-3)		泊松比 μ_c
2 600	0.25	0.5	380	2 400		0.167

Table 2 Uncertain parameters

统计量	抗拉强度/ MPa抗压强度/ MPa		弹性模量/ GPa				滑移面摩擦系数	滑移面黏聚力/ MPa
统计量	坝体	岩基	坝体	岩基	坝体	岩基	滑移面摩擦系数	滑移面黏聚力/ MPa
最小值	1.40	1.12	16.00	14.60	22.00	11.770	0.90	0.70
最大值	1.70	1.44	18.50	17.20	25.50	12.300	1.10	1.10
均值	1.55	1.28	17.25	15.90	23.75	12.035	1.00	0.90
离差	0.15	0.16	1.25	1.30	1.75	0.265	0.10	0.20

Table 2 Uncertain parameters

统计量	抗拉强度/ MPa抗压强度/ MPa		弹性模量/ GPa				滑移面摩擦系数	滑移面黏聚力/ MPa
统计量	坝体	岩基	坝体	岩基	坝体	岩基	滑移面摩擦系数	滑移面黏聚力/ MPa
最小值	1.40	1.12	16.00	14.60	22.00	11.770	0.90	0.70
最大值	1.70	1.44	18.50	17.20	25.50	12.300	1.10	1.10
均值	1.55	1.28	17.25	15.90	23.75	12.035	1.00	0.90
离差	0.15	0.16	1.25	1.30	1.75	0.265	0.10	0.20

Fig.4 Principal stress distribution of gravity dam

Fig.5 Contours of gravity dam reliability indices

Fig.6 Statistics of the number of dam body elements in different reliability ranges

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