Risk Assessment of Water Pollution Emergencies for Water Diversion Project Based on Cloud Model: A Case Study on Henan Section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20230890

Abstract

Abstract:

Assessing the risks and reducing the hazard level of water pollution emergencies in water diversion projects are of prominent significance to leveraging the benefits of such projects and enhancing regional water supply safety. The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) model was employed to establish a risk evaluation index system that reflects the characteristics of risk sources and risk receptors. A method of evaluating the risk grades of water pollution emergencies was proposed by utilizing the cloud model to quantitatively assess the risk water pollution emergency in the Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project. Findings revealed low risks of water pollution emergency in the studied section. Specifically, the risks of two sections were classified as significant (Level II), while five were designated as general (Level IV). These results aligned with qualitative evaluations considering risk source magnitude, risk receptor vulnerability, and risk control effectiveness. Our study offers a novel approach for assessing the risks of water pollution emergencies in water diversion projects and lays a foundation for risk management in the study area.

Key words: water pollution emergency, water diversion project, cloud model, risk assessment, Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

CLC Number:

TV11

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CHEN Shu, WANG Hui, ZHANG Tai-he, FAN Jia-yi, LIU Shuang, WANG Jing. Risk Assessment of Water Pollution Emergencies for Water Diversion Project Based on Cloud Model: A Case Study on Henan Section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(10): 48-55.

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URL: http://ckyyb.crsri.cn/EN/10.11988/ckyyb.20230890

http://ckyyb.crsri.cn/EN/Y2024/V41/I10/48

Figures/Tables 7

Fig.1 Risk assessment index system of water pollution emergencies for water diversion project

Table 1 Risk assessment classification criteria of water pollution emergencies for water diversion project

风险等级	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级
风险指数	(0.75,1]	(0.5,0.75]	(0.25,0.5]	[0,0.25]

Table 1 Risk assessment classification criteria of water pollution emergencies for water diversion project

风险等级	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级
风险指数	(0.75,1]	(0.5,0.75]	(0.25,0.5]	[0,0.25]

Table 2 Classification criteria for risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for water diversion project

指标名称	指标描述	不同风险等级与风险指数下取值
		Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级
		[0.75,1]	[0.5,0.75)	[0.25,0.5)	[0,0.25)
沿线公路里程 (D₁)	沿线公路长度与输水明渠长度比值/%	[100,200]	[50,100)	[25,50)	[0,25)
跨河桥梁数量 (D₂)	输水明渠上实际可通车的跨河桥梁数量/座	≥30	[20,30)	[10,20)	[0,10)
固定风险源规模 (D₃)	工业企业、有毒化学品仓库、污水处理厂等密集程度	高度密集	密集	较分散	分散
沿线航道里程 (D₄)	沿线航道长度与输水明渠长度比值/%	[75,100]	[50,75)	[25,50)	[0,25)
入河排污口数量 (P₁)	直接向输水明渠内排放污水的工业排污口、生活排污口以及混合排污口数量	工业排污口≥10个;或生活排污口≥30个;或工业生活混合排污口≥20个	工业排污口6~9个;或生活排污口20~29个;或工业生活混合排污口10~19个	工业排污口2~5个;或生活排污口10~19个;或工业生活混合排污口4~9个	工业排污口<2个;或生活排污口<10个;或工业生活混合排污口<3个
汇入支流情况 (P₂)	汇入支流数量/个	≥30	[20,30)	[10,20)	[0,10]
汇入支流情况 (P₂)	截污工程比例/%	[0,25)	[25,50)	[50,75)	[75,100]
输水水质状况 (S₁)	输水水质类别	Ⅰ类水	Ⅱ类水	Ⅲ类水	Ⅳ、V类水
闸泵工程情况 (S₂)	每10 km闸泵工程数量/座	[0,0.5)	[0.5,1)	[1,2)	≥2
水库调蓄能力 (S₃)	事故段下游调蓄水库体积与事故段日输水量比值	[0,0.5)	[0.5,1)	[1,2)	≥2
受影响人口数量 (I₁)	受影响人口数量占工程受益人口总数的比值/%	[75,100]	[50,75)	[25,50)	[0,25)
社会经济影响 (I₂)	受水区范围内工业企业减产损失、服务业营收损失、农牧渔减产损失以及水污染事件应急处置费用等/(万元)	≥10 000	[5 000,10 000)	[1 000,5 000)	[0,1 000)
防护栏安装比例 (R₁)	防护栏安装长度与输水明渠长度的比值/%	[0,50)	[50,100)	[100,150)	[150,200]
视频监控情况 (R₂)	输水明渠上视频监控安装密集程度	分散	较分散	密集	高度密集
应急处理能力 (R₃)	应急预案、应急设备、应急队伍等方面情况	无应急预案;无应急队伍;无应急设备	有初步应急预案;有少量应急设备;有应急队伍但人数不足	有较完善应急预案;有较多应急设备;有较多应急人员	有完善应急预案;有足够应急设备;有健全的应急队伍且定期开展应急演练

Table 2 Classification criteria for risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for water diversion project

指标名称	指标描述	不同风险等级与风险指数下取值
		Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级
		[0.75,1]	[0.5,0.75)	[0.25,0.5)	[0,0.25)
沿线公路里程 (D₁)	沿线公路长度与输水明渠长度比值/%	[100,200]	[50,100)	[25,50)	[0,25)
跨河桥梁数量 (D₂)	输水明渠上实际可通车的跨河桥梁数量/座	≥30	[20,30)	[10,20)	[0,10)
固定风险源规模 (D₃)	工业企业、有毒化学品仓库、污水处理厂等密集程度	高度密集	密集	较分散	分散
沿线航道里程 (D₄)	沿线航道长度与输水明渠长度比值/%	[75,100]	[50,75)	[25,50)	[0,25)
入河排污口数量 (P₁)	直接向输水明渠内排放污水的工业排污口、生活排污口以及混合排污口数量	工业排污口≥10个;或生活排污口≥30个;或工业生活混合排污口≥20个	工业排污口6~9个;或生活排污口20~29个;或工业生活混合排污口10~19个	工业排污口2~5个;或生活排污口10~19个;或工业生活混合排污口4~9个	工业排污口<2个;或生活排污口<10个;或工业生活混合排污口<3个
汇入支流情况 (P₂)	汇入支流数量/个	≥30	[20,30)	[10,20)	[0,10]
汇入支流情况 (P₂)	截污工程比例/%	[0,25)	[25,50)	[50,75)	[75,100]
输水水质状况 (S₁)	输水水质类别	Ⅰ类水	Ⅱ类水	Ⅲ类水	Ⅳ、V类水
闸泵工程情况 (S₂)	每10 km闸泵工程数量/座	[0,0.5)	[0.5,1)	[1,2)	≥2
水库调蓄能力 (S₃)	事故段下游调蓄水库体积与事故段日输水量比值	[0,0.5)	[0.5,1)	[1,2)	≥2
受影响人口数量 (I₁)	受影响人口数量占工程受益人口总数的比值/%	[75,100]	[50,75)	[25,50)	[0,25)
社会经济影响 (I₂)	受水区范围内工业企业减产损失、服务业营收损失、农牧渔减产损失以及水污染事件应急处置费用等/(万元)	≥10 000	[5 000,10 000)	[1 000,5 000)	[0,1 000)
防护栏安装比例 (R₁)	防护栏安装长度与输水明渠长度的比值/%	[0,50)	[50,100)	[100,150)	[150,200]
视频监控情况 (R₂)	输水明渠上视频监控安装密集程度	分散	较分散	密集	高度密集
应急处理能力 (R₃)	应急预案、应急设备、应急队伍等方面情况	无应急预案;无应急队伍;无应急设备	有初步应急预案;有少量应急设备;有应急队伍但人数不足	有较完善应急预案;有较多应急设备;有较多应急人员	有完善应急预案;有足够应急设备;有健全的应急队伍且定期开展应急演练

Fig.2 Generalized map of Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

Table 3 Values of risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

评价指标	不同评价河段的指标风险指数
评价指标	A	A1	A2	A3	B	B1	B2
D₁	0.72	0.73	0.71	0.72	0.87	0.93	0.77
D₂	0.60	0.10	0.25	0.25	0.40	0.25	0.15
D₃	0.20	0.12	0.15	0.13	0.25	0.21	0.24
P₁	0.62	0.08	0.36	0.29	0	0	0
P₂	0.48	0.32	0.14	0.03	0.19	0.10	0.09
S₁	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33
S₂	0.66	0.42	0.69	0.30	0.28	0.25	0.11
S₃	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.18	0.18	0.18
I₁	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.63	0.63	0.63
I₂	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.16	0.16	0.16
R₁	0.18	0	0	0.93	0	0	0
R₂	0.87	0.83	0.83	0.90	0.83	0.83	0.83
R₃	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10

Table 3 Values of risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

评价指标	不同评价河段的指标风险指数
评价指标	A	A1	A2	A3	B	B1	B2
D₁	0.72	0.73	0.71	0.72	0.87	0.93	0.77
D₂	0.60	0.10	0.25	0.25	0.40	0.25	0.15
D₃	0.20	0.12	0.15	0.13	0.25	0.21	0.24
P₁	0.62	0.08	0.36	0.29	0	0	0
P₂	0.48	0.32	0.14	0.03	0.19	0.10	0.09
S₁	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33
S₂	0.66	0.42	0.69	0.30	0.28	0.25	0.11
S₃	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.18	0.18	0.18
I₁	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.63	0.63	0.63
I₂	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.16	0.16	0.16
R₁	0.18	0	0	0.93	0	0	0
R₂	0.87	0.83	0.83	0.90	0.83	0.83	0.83
R₃	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10

Table 4 Weights of risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

指标	主观权重	客观权重	综合权重
D₁	0.116	0.089	0.097
D₂	0.116	0.051	0.071
D₃	0.097	0.048	0.063
P₁	0.140	0.101	0.113
P₂	0.116	0.055	0.074
S₁	0.048	0	0.015
S₂	0.048	0.042	0.044
S₃	0.058	0.077	0.071
I₁	0.058	0.077	0.071
I₂	0.048	0.077	0.068
R₁	0.081	0.206	0.168
R₂	0.033	0.177	0.133
R₃	0.041	0	0.012

Table 4 Weights of risk assessment indicators of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

指标	主观权重	客观权重	综合权重
D₁	0.116	0.089	0.097
D₂	0.116	0.051	0.071
D₃	0.097	0.048	0.063
P₁	0.140	0.101	0.113
P₂	0.116	0.055	0.074
S₁	0.048	0	0.015
S₂	0.048	0.042	0.044
S₃	0.058	0.077	0.071
I₁	0.058	0.077	0.071
I₂	0.048	0.077	0.068
R₁	0.081	0.206	0.168
R₂	0.033	0.177	0.133
R₃	0.041	0	0.012

Table 5 Risk assessment result of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

评价河段	确定度				风险等级
评价河段	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级	风险等级
A	0.217	0.392*	0.168	0.244	Ⅱ
A1	0.197	0.153	0.173	0.382*	Ⅳ
A2	0.197	0.198	0.221	0.311*	Ⅳ
A3	0.216	0.346*	0.196	0.241	Ⅱ
B	0.223	0.106	0.186	0.391*	Ⅳ
B1	0.211	0.094	0.119	0.456*	Ⅳ
B2	0.186	0.130	0.080	0.498*	Ⅳ

Table 5 Risk assessment result of water pollution emergencies for Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

评价河段	确定度				风险等级
评价河段	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级	风险等级
A	0.217	0.392*	0.168	0.244	Ⅱ
A1	0.197	0.153	0.173	0.382*	Ⅳ
A2	0.197	0.198	0.221	0.311*	Ⅳ
A3	0.216	0.346*	0.196	0.241	Ⅱ
B	0.223	0.106	0.186	0.391*	Ⅳ
B1	0.211	0.094	0.119	0.456*	Ⅳ
B2	0.186	0.130	0.080	0.498*	Ⅳ

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