Abstract: Simulating land use change under different future development scenarios and evaluating its impact on hydrology play an important role in guiding land use optimization and water security in the watershed. The trend of land use change in the Miluo River Basin from 2000 to 2018 was analyzed, and the land use in 2035 was predicted using FLUS model under two scenarios: the baseline scenario with no control area, and the restricted scenario with development restriction area. Moreover, the change of hydrological response caused by land use change in different scenarios was evaluated by SWAT model. Results showed that: 1) The six land use types in the Miluo River Basin showed obvious change trends from 2000 to 2018, among which the main trend was the transformation from woodland and cultivated land to construction land. 2) Compared with the baseline scenario, the restricted scenario saw increments in forestland and unused land by 0.14 km² and 0.04 km², and reduction in cultivated land and grassland by 0.13 km² and 0.06 km², respectively. The proportion of total area of various land use types remained unchanged. 3) The annual runoff of the basin under the restricted scenario is 383 500 m³ less than that under the baseline scenario.

Key words: land use prediction, hydrologic response, FLUS model, SWAT model, Miluo River Basin