Abstract: To maximize the agricultural water saving potential and achieve a sustainable growth, we estimated and analyzed the water saving potential in the water receiving area of central Yunnan Province. Based on meteorological and field survey data, we designed five scenarios of water saving and calculated the water saving potentials in each scenario using the calculation method recommended by the Ministry of Water Resources with 2017 as the current benchmark year and 2030 as the planning level year. We also analyzed the regional food security and the benefits of water saving investment. Results demonstrate that in the planning level year 2030, the average irrigation water use coefficient in the study area will reach 0.69, water saving irrigation rate will amount to 80%, and highly-efficient water saving irrigation rate 30%. By adjusting the rice planting area within the range of -10%-3% according to the actual planting structure based on the current benchmark year, we can save 187.82 million m³ of agricultural water on the prerequisite of ensuring regional good security.

Key words: agricultural water saving potential, water saving development scenario, planting structure, irrigation water use coefficient, water receiving area in central Yunnan Province